Elevational shift of endangered European yew under climate change in Hyrcanian mountain forests: Rethinking conservation-restoration strategies and management

Mahmoodi, Shirin; Ahmadi, Kourosh; Heydari, Mehdi; Karami, Omid; Esmailzadeh, Omid; Heung, Brandon

doi:10.1016/j.foreco.2022.120693

Cited by 21 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 52 publications

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“…The ROC evaluates the accuracy of the model with the area under the curve (AUC). ROC analysis method has been widely used in the evaluation of species distribution prediction models [27,29,31,50,51]. An AUC value of 0.5-0.6 is predicted failure; 0.6-0.7 indicates poor prediction; 0.7-0.8 represents a general forecast; 0.8-0.9 indicates good prediction; and 0.9-1.0 represents that the prediction results are very accurate and reliable [52].…”

Section: Model Accuracy Validationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Gebrewahid et al [27] applied MaxEnt to accurately predict Oxytenanthera abyssinica (A. Richard) distribution under future climate change; Zhang et al [28] obtained the global potential risk area of the alien species Xanthium italicum through the MaxEnt model, which is helpful for countries to prevent and control; Li et al [29] used the MaxEnt model to predict the current and future distribution of three Coptis herbs (Coptis chinensis Franch., Coptis deltoidei C. Y. Cheng et Hsiao and Coptis teeta Wall) in China under climate change. At present, MaxEnt has been applied to the prevention of alien species invasion [30], the restoration and protection of endangered species [31], the simulation and prediction of species distribution [23], the planning of protected areas [10], etc.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The Ginkgo biloba L. in China: Current Distribution and Possible Future Habitat

Zhang,

Tian

et al. 2023

Forests

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With the increase in global temperature, the global change situation dominated by climate warming is becoming more and more serious. Climate change will cause differences in the suitable areas of species in different periods. Ginkgo biloba L., a rare and endangered wild plant protected at the national level in China, is the oldest relict plant in the world. Because of severe climate change, only China’s wild Ginkgo biloba has been preserved, yet China’s wild Ginkgo biloba population is facing extinction risk. Ginkgo biloba has rich ornamental value, application value, economic value, medicinal value and ecological value. Not only can it produce economic and ecological benefits, but it can also produce huge social benefits. Based on the data of Ginkgo biloba sample distribution, bioclimatic variables and soil variables, this paper uses the MaxEnt model to simulate Ginkgo biloba suitable area under current and future different climate scenarios, and analyzes the changes in the potential suitable area of Ginkgo biloba in the future through ArcGIS 10.6. The results are as follows: (1) the results simulated by the MaxEnt model are AUC > 0.9, showing that the simulation results have a high accuracy; (2) the min temperature of the coldest month, precipitation of the wettest month, elevation, and temperature seasonality are the main environmental variables affecting the change in the Ginkgo biloba suitable area; (3) under future climate scenarios, the suitable area of Ginkgo biloba is predicted to expand in the future, covering most of the south and some northeast regions, and moderate temperature and precipitation changes under climate change are conducive for the growth of Ginkgo biloba; and (4) in the future, the distribution center of the suitable area will move to the northeast. According to the conclusions in this paper, it is expected to provide theoretical reference for cultivation and management, sustainable utilization and solution of ecological environment problems of Ginkgo biloba.

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Section: Model Accuracy Validationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Ginkgo biloba L. in China: Current Distribution and Possible Future Habitat

Zhang,

Tian

et al. 2023

Forests

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“…Consequently, lowland and sub-montane species, such as Albizia julibrissin, Gleditsia caspica, and Populus caspica are currently reduced to the small patches (Sagheb-Talebi et al 2014). Moreover, according to recent projections for the ecoregion, an alarming reduction in suitable areas for major tree species, including endemic taxa, is expected in the next decades (Ahmadi et al 2020;Alavi et al 2019;Alipour and Walas 2023;Joorabian Shooshtari et al 2017;Mahmoodi et al 2023;Naqinezhad et al 2022;Song et al 2021;Taleshi et al 2019). Among the Hyrcanian endemic trees, a strong reduction of the climatically suitable areas was projected for Acer velutinum (Taleshi et al 2019), Gleditsia caspica (Taleshi et al 2019;Yousefzadeh et al 2022), Parrotia persica (Taleshi et al 2019), Populus caspica , and Buxus hyrcana (Alipour and Walas 2023).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Consequence of habitat specificity: a rising risk of habitat loss for endemic and sub-endemic woody species under climate change in the Hyrcanian ecoregion

Sękiewicz,

Salvà-Catarineu,

Walas

et al. 2024

Reg Environ Change

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Endemic species are more impacted by climate change than other taxa. However, assessing the vulnerability of endemics to these changes in some regions, such as the Hyrcanian forest, is limited, despite its importance for biodiversity and ecosystem function. To address the question of expected habitat shifts under climate change across the Hyrcanian ecoregion, we built an ensemble of species distribution models (SDM) under two emission scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) for 15 endemic woody taxa. To identify the potential priority conservation areas, we also applied a spatial prioritization approach. Overall, our results suggest that the impacts of climate change are more severe on the eastern parts of the region (Golestan) and the Talysh Mountains (north-western Hyrcanian ecoregion) with over 85% and 34% loss of suitable habitats over the next 80 years. The central part of the Alborz Mountains (Mazandaran) and some areas in the Talysh Mountains could be potential climatic refugia under the future conditions for endemic taxa. The most prominent changes are expected for Ruscus hyrcanus, Gleditsia capsica, Acer velutinum, Frangula grandifolia, and Buxus hyrcana. The worrying predicted loss of suitable habitats for most studied taxa would dramatically affect the stability and resilience of forests, threatening thus biodiversity of the Hyrcanian ecoregion. We present the first estimation of the potential risks involved and provide useful support for regional climate-adaptation strategy, indicating potential conservation priority areas for maintaining and preserving its resources. Notably, only 13.4% of areas designated for conservation and management under climate change will be located within the current Hyrcanian protected areas, yet the majority of these areas are classified as low priority.

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“…These models have the potential to fill knowledge gaps about species distribution by relating species occurrence data and environmental variables to predict the possible presence of species in a specific area [8]. Species distribution models are frequently used to predict the future distribution of species under climate change and land use scenarios [9], to evaluate the risk of invasive alien species [10][11][12][13][14], to prioritize conservation management [15,16], and to predict and create distribution maps for rare and endangered species [12,17,18].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate-Change-Driven Shifts in Aegilops tauschii Species Distribution: Implications for Food Security and Ecological Conservation

Mahmoodi,

Jaffar Aghaei,

Ahmadi

et al. 2024

Diversity

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Climate change has diverse effects on the planet’s environment, including changes and shifts in the distribution and abundance of species. In this paper, we present a robust prediction ensemble algorithm for the current and future species distribution of Aegilops tauschii. Four modeling approaches were trained using various environmental variables (bioclimatic and soil variables) to accurately predict the species distribution for future scenarios. The results showed that GBM and RF demonstrated the most accurate predictions with an Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) Curve (AUC) of 0.80 and 0.83, respectively. The results of variable importance depicted that the temperature seasonality (bio4) was the most important and effective factor in determining the habitat suitability of Ae. tauschii, followed closely by the precipitation seasonality (bioclimate 15) and the mean temperature of the warmest quarter (bio10). Then, the distribution maps of Ae. tauschii were produced under climate change scenarios for 2050 and 2070. The results showed that Ae. tauschii will lose some of its suitable habitats under climate change and that this loss will be more severe in the east part of the study area. The results of the present study have important implications for ecological conservation as they can assist in identifying critical habitats and inform conservation planning efforts. Our model provides a valuable tool for understanding the potential future distribution of Ae. tauschii and highlights the need for continuous monitoring and protection of this species.

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Elevational shift of endangered European yew under climate change in Hyrcanian mountain forests: Rethinking conservation-restoration strategies and management

Cited by 21 publications

References 52 publications

The Ginkgo biloba L. in China: Current Distribution and Possible Future Habitat

The Ginkgo biloba L. in China: Current Distribution and Possible Future Habitat

Consequence of habitat specificity: a rising risk of habitat loss for endemic and sub-endemic woody species under climate change in the Hyrcanian ecoregion

Climate-Change-Driven Shifts in Aegilops tauschii Species Distribution: Implications for Food Security and Ecological Conservation

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