Eliciting and Analyzing Expert Judgment

Meyer, Mary A.; Booker, Jane M.

doi:10.1137/1.9780898718485

Cited by 411 publications

(325 citation statements)

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“…Most people are reliable estimators using pairwise comparisons because they only have to consider two things at a time [14]. The selected approaches, AHP and ELECTRE, are popular and have strong theoretical basis [15], [16].…”

Section: The Pairwise Comparison Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Requirements Definitions of Real-Time System Using the Behavioral Patterns Analysis (BPA) Approach: The Air Traffic Control System

El-Ansary¹

2015

LNSE

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Section: The Pairwise Comparison Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Requirements Definitions of Real-Time System Using the Behavioral Patterns Analysis (BPA) Approach: The Air Traffic Control System

El-Ansary¹

2015

LNSE

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“…The Delphi method is by far the most known method for eliciting and synthesizing expert opinions 10,11) and has been proven as a popular tool in information systems research for identifying and prioritizing issues for managerial decision-making. 12) A three-stage Delphi survey has been tried out for this work.…”

Section: Delphi Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Probabilistic Risk Assessment for Field Radiography Based on Expert Judgment and Opinion

Jang

Ryu

Kim

et al. 2011

Progress in Nuclear Science and Technology

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A probabilistic approach was applied to assess radiation risk associated with the field radiography using gamma sources. The Delphi method based on the expert judgments and opinions was used in the process of characterization of parameters affecting risk, which are inevitably subject to large uncertainties. A mathematical approach applying the Bayesian inferences was employed for data processing to improve the Delphi results. This process consists of three phases: (i) setting prior distributions, (ii) constructing the likelihood functions and (iii) deriving the posterior distributions based on the likelihood functions. The approach for characterizing input parameters using the Bayesian inference is provided for improved risk estimates without intentional rejection of part of the data, which demonstrated utility of Bayesian updating of distributions of uncertain input parameters in PRA (Probabilistic Risk Assessment). The data analysis portion for PRA in field radiography is addressed for estimates of the parameters used to determine the frequencies and consequences of the various events modeled. In this study, radiological risks for the worker and the public member in the vicinity of the work place are estimated for field radiography system in Korea based on two-dimensional Monte Carlo Analysis (2D MCA).

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“…For simple variables for which the first results are fairly consistent among the panel members, those results were taken as the final distribution. Otherwise the typical procedure of Delphi study 6,7) followed. The surveys were conducted through e-mails.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Radiological Risk Assessment for High Dose Rate Brachytherapy with Expert Judgment and Statistical Inference

Ryu

Jang

Kim

et al. 2011

Progress in Nuclear Science and Technology

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A probabilistic risk assessment was performed for the workers in and the other persons around the HDR brachytherapy facilities. To overcome the scarcity of experience data for the variables affecting exposure potential, Delphi surveys were applied to complement the available data. Bayesian inference was also employed to refine the distributions of variables. The radiological risks were evaluated by using the two-diensional Monte Carlo analysis to get better insights taking into account both uncertainty and variability. By comparing the results with those of simple probabilistic risk analysis, the merit of the approach taken in this study was exemplified.

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Eliciting and Analyzing Expert Judgment

Cited by 411 publications

References 0 publications

Requirements Definitions of Real-Time System Using the Behavioral Patterns Analysis (BPA) Approach: The Air Traffic Control System

Requirements Definitions of Real-Time System Using the Behavioral Patterns Analysis (BPA) Approach: The Air Traffic Control System

A Probabilistic Risk Assessment for Field Radiography Based on Expert Judgment and Opinion

Radiological Risk Assessment for High Dose Rate Brachytherapy with Expert Judgment and Statistical Inference

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