Eliminating Human Agency: Why Does Japan Abandon Predictive Simulations?

Abstract

Prediction plays a vital role in every branch of our contemporary lives. While the credibility of quantitative simulations through mathematical modeling may seem to be universal, how they are perceived and embedded in policy processes may vary by society. Investigating the ecology of quantitative prediction tools, this article articulates the cultural specificity of Japanese society through the concept of Jasanoff’s “civic epistemology.” Taking COVID-19 and nuclear disasters as examples, this article examines how predictive simulations are mobilized, contested, and abandoned. In both cases, current empirical observation eventually replaces predictive future simulations, and mechanical application of preset criteria substitutes political judgment. These analyses suggest that the preferred register of objectivity in Japan—one of the constitutive dimensions of civic epistemology—consists not in producing numerical results, but in precluding human judgment. Such public calls to eliminate human agency both in knowledge and in policy-making can be a distinct character of Japanese civic epistemology, which may explain why Japan repeatedly withdraws from predictive simulations. It implies the possibility that Western societies’ faith in human judgment should not be taken for granted, but explained.

The multistability of predictive technology in nuclear disasters

“…After the release of radioactive materials, if the measured values of the air dose rate exceed the pre-set criteria (for instance, 500 μSv/h), people in that district are required to evacuate (Nuclear Regulation Authority [NRA], 2019). In this new framework, prediction plays no role: Observable parameters automatically trigger the necessary course of action without requiring estimations and judgments from experts or politicians (Sugawara, 2021; Sugawara & Juraku, 2018).…”

“…It involved 16 semi-structured interviews with 24 participants, including the developers of SPEEDI, local government officials, residents living near nuclear power plants, and experts from the regulatory authority. The previous works of Sugawara and Juraku illustrate the outline of the SPEEDI controversy and reveal the gap between the SPEEDI simulation’s intent and its actual use (Juraku, 2021; Juraku & Sugawara, 2021; Sugawara, 2021; Sugawara & Juraku, 2018). By incorporating postphenomenological perspectives into the empirical analysis, this article aims to elucidate the human–technology relations behind the SPEEDI controversy.…”

Jogo Tonggo as a Cultural Policy

“…Kebijakan budaya yang telah stabil ini kemudian berimbas pada efektivitas mengalihkan kebijakan ini dalam menghadapi pandemi Covid-19 (An & Tang, 2020;K. W. Hong, 2019;Lee et al, 2021;Sugawara, 2021;Yan et al, 2020;You, 2020).…”