Abstract. Exposure to elemental carbon (EC) and NOx is a
public health issue that has been gaining increasing interest, with high
exposure levels generally observed in traffic environments, e.g., roadsides.
Shanghai, home to approximately 25 million in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD)
region in eastern China, has one of the most intensive traffic activity levels in
the world. However, our understanding of the trend in vehicular emissions
and, in particular, in response to the strict Covid-19 lockdown is limited
partly due to the lack of a long-term observation dataset and application of
advanced mathematical models. In this study, NOx and EC were
continuously monitored at a sampling site near a highway in western Shanghai for
5 years (2016–2020). The long-term dataset was used to train the machine
learning model, rebuilding NOx and EC in a business-as-usual (BAU)
scenario for 2020. The reduction in NOx and EC attributable to the lockdown
was found to be smaller than it appeared because the first week of the lockdown
overlapped with the Lunar New Year holiday, whereas, at a later stage of
the lockdown, the reduction (50 %–70 %) attributable to the lockdown
was more
significant, consistent with the satellite monitoring of NO2 showing
reduced traffic on a regional scale. In contrast, the impact of the
lockdown
on vehicular emissions cannot be represented well by simply comparing the
concentration before and during the lockdown for conventional campaigns.
This study demonstrates the value of continuous air pollutant monitoring at
a roadside on a long-term basis. Combined with the advanced mathematical
model, air quality changes due to future emission control and/or event-driven
scenarios are expected to be better predicted.