Embedding stakeholders’ priorities into the low-emission development of the East African dairy sector

Abstract

A growing body of evidence shows that more intensive dairy systems can be good for both nature and people. Little research considers whether such systems correspond with local priorities and preferences. Using a mixed methods approach, this study examined the effects of three intensification scenarios on milk yield and emission intensities in Kenya and Tanzania. Scenarios included (a) an incremental change to feed management; (b) adaptive change by replacing poor quality grass with nutrient-rich fodder crops; and (c) multiple change involving concurrent improvements to breeds, feeds and concentrate supplementation. These scenarios were co-constructed with diverse stakeholder groups to ensure these resonate with local preferences and priorities. Modelling these scenarios showed that milk yield could increase by 2%–15% with incremental changes to over 200% with multiple changes. Greenhouse gas emission intensities are lowest under the multiple change scenario, reducing by an estimated 44%. While raising yields, incremental change conversely raises emission intensities by 9%. Our results suggest that while future interventions that account for local priorities and preferences can enhance productivity and increase the uptake of practices, far-reaching shifts in practices are needed to reduce the climatic footprint of the dairy sector. Since top-down interventions does not align with local priorities and preferences in many situations, future low-emission development initiatives should place more emphasis on geographic and stakeholder heterogeneity when designing targeting and implementation strategies. This suggests that in low-income countries, bottom-up approaches may be more likely to improve dairy productivity and align with mitigation targets than one-size-fits-all approaches.

High-yield dairy cattle breeds improve farmer incomes, curtail greenhouse gas emissions and reduce dairy import dependency in Tanzania

“…Moreover, overall GHG reductions estimated by this study are substantially larger (20-37%) (Fig. 1c) compared to previous estimates 16,17 . These findings indicate that 4.3-7.9 Mt of CO2eq could be saved every year by supporting the dairy sector achieve self-sufficiency and mitigation targets eligible for climate financing.…”

“…Breeds with high feed conversion efficiency produce milk with up to 35% lower GHG emissions intensity, implying Tanzania's genetic improvement goals could reduce the dairy sector's carbon footprint 15 . Previous assessments have been limited in scope neglecting the risks of land use change and did not account for the costs and benefits from breed adoption 16,17 .…”

Transition pathways and transitions to sustainability : A critical exploration of perspectives, typologies and agendas

“…This was done via mapping disaggregated intervention strategies responsive to observed variation in dairy production which resonate with local policy planning and capture diverse priorities. Specifically, national, regional and local stakeholder priorities were explored and embedded in LED (Yesuf et al 2021), producer heterogeneity was typified (Kihoro et al 2021) and intrahousehold dynamics were elaborated (Tavenner et al 2018).…”

Improved animal genetics deliver low emissions development in East Africa’s dairy sector

“…Breeds with high feed conversion efficiency are estimated to produce milk with up to 35% lower GHGs per litre, implying Tanzania's genetic improvement goals have inherent potential to reduce the dairy sector's carbon footprint 19 . Previous national-level assessments of these outcomes however have omitted the potential for avoided land use change to contribute to dairy's GHG mitigation potential, thus under-estimating the sector's climate mitigation potential 20,21 . In this way, an assessment to quantify the full magnitude of GHG reductions to be realised through improved breeds and the potential contribution to national development goals could be useful to inform climate mitigation policy in Tanzania's dairy sector, and by extension other sectors facing similar challenges.…”