Emergence of Populism under Risk and Ambiguity

Kishishita, Daiki

doi:10.2139/ssrn.3006550

SSRN Journal

2017

DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3006550

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Emergence of Populism under Risk and Ambiguity

Daiki Kishishita

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2021

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“… 2 For example, for theoretical models, see Acemoglu Egorov and Sonin ( 2013 ), Berliant and Konishi ( 2005 ), Binswanger and Prüfer ( 2012 ), Maskin and Tirole ( 2004 ), Prato and Wolton ( 2018 ), and Wintrobe ( 2018 ). Following the model of Berliant and Konishi ( 2005 ), Kishishita ( 2018 ) also shows that greater uncertainty rather than risk is a leading driver of populist support. …”

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The role of economic uncertainty in the rise of EU populism

Gözgör

2021

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Economic interests are assumed to be the leading driver of political preferences, and various empirical studies have examined how economic conditions affect political views and voting behavior. Meanwhile, populism is on the rise in European Union (EU) member countries. Against that backdrop, this paper aims to examine the effect of economic uncertainty on populist voting behavior based on a panel dataset of 24 EU countries from 1980 to 2020. We focus on whether total populist, right-wing populist, and left-wing populist votes are affected by a new indicator of economic uncertainty, namely, the World Uncertainty Index (WUI). Relying on a fixed-effects, bias-corrected least squares dummy variable estimator and instrumental variable estimations, we show that a higher WUI increases total populism and right-wing populist voting behavior. The baseline results remain consistent when dealing with potential issues of endogeneity and reverse causality, addressing omitted variable bias, and excluding outliers. Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11127-021-00933-7.

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confidence: 97%

The role of economic uncertainty in the rise of EU populism

Gözgör

2021

Public Choice

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Emergence of Populism under Risk and Ambiguity

Cited by 1 publication

References 44 publications

The role of economic uncertainty in the rise of EU populism

The role of economic uncertainty in the rise of EU populism

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