Emergency Assessment of Debris-Flow Hazards from Basins Burned by the 2007 Buckweed Fire, Los Angeles County, Southern California

Cannon, Susan H.; Gartner, Joseph E.; Michael, John A.; Bauer, Mark A.; Stitt, Susan C.; Knifong, Donna L.; McNamara, B. J.; Roque, Yvonne M.

doi:10.3133/ofr20071414

Cited by 2 publications

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“…Probability estimates are based upon a logistic regression model derived from a southernCalifornia-specific database (Rupert and others, 2008), updated in 2011 to include basin-response information from the fires of 2007-2010(Susan Cannon, 2011. This model is designed to predict the probability of debris-flow occurrence at a point along the drainage network in response to a given storm by combining the following two equations:…”

Section: Methods Used To Estimate Debris-flow Hazardsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Emergency assessment of post-fire debris-flow hazards for the 2013 Mountain fire, southern California

Staley¹,

Gartner²,

Smoczyk³

et al. 2013

Open-File Report

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For more information on the USGS-the Federal source for science about the Earth, its natural and living resources, natural hazards, and the environment-visit http://www.usgs.gov or call 1-888-ASK-USGS For an overview of USGS information products, including maps, imagery, and publications, visit http://www.usgs.gov/pubprodTo order this and other USGS information products, visit http://store.usgs.gov Any use of trade, firm, or product names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the U.S. Government.Although this information product, for the most part, is in the public domain, it also may contain copyrighted materials as noted in the text. Permission to reproduce copyrighted items must be secured from the copyright owner. AbstractWildfire dramatically alters the hydrologic response of a watershed such that even modest rainstorms can produce dangerous flash floods and debris flows. We use empirical models to predict the probability and magnitude of debris flow occurrence in response to a 10-year rainstorm for the 2013 Mountain fire near Palm Springs, California. Overall, the models predict a relatively high probability (60-100 percent) of debris flow for six of the drainage basins in the burn area in response to a 10-year recurrence interval design storm. Volumetric predictions suggest that debris flows that occur may entrain a significant volume of material, with 8 of the 14 basins identified as having potential debrisflow volumes greater than 100,000 cubic meters. These results suggest there is a high likelihood of significant debris-flow hazard within and downstream of the burn area for nearby populations, infrastructure, and wildlife and water resources. Given these findings, we recommend that residents, emergency managers, and public works departments pay close attention to weather forecasts and National Weather Service-issued Debris Flow and Flash Flood Outlooks, Watches and Warnings and that residents adhere to any evacuation orders.

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Section: Methods Used To Estimate Debris-flow Hazardsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Emergency assessment of post-fire debris-flow hazards for the 2013 Mountain fire, southern California

Staley¹,

Gartner²,

Smoczyk³

et al. 2013

Open-File Report

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…The probability estimates are based upon a logistic regression model derived from a southern-California-specific database (Rupert and others, 2008), updated in 2011 to include basin-response information from the fires of 2007(Susan Cannon, 2011. This model is designed to predict the probability of debris-flow occurrence at a basin outlet in response to a given storm by combining the following two equations:…”

Section: Methods Used To Estimate Debris-flow Hazardsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Emergency assessment of post-fire debris-flow hazards for the 2013 Powerhouse fire, southern California

Staley¹,

Smoczyk²,

Reeves³

2013

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Wildfire dramatically alters the hydrologic response of a watershed such that even modest rainstorms can produce dangerous flash floods and debris flows. Existing empirical models were used to predict the probability and magnitude of debris-flow occurrence in response to a 10-year recurrence interval rainstorm for the 2013 Powerhouse fire near Lancaster, California. Overall, the models predict a relatively low probability for debris-flow occurrence in response to the design storm. However, volumetric predictions suggest that debris flows that occur may entrain a significant volume of material, with 44 of the 73 basins identified as having potential debris-flow volumes between 10,000 and 100,000 cubic meters. These results suggest that even though the likelihood of debris flow is relatively low, the consequences of post-fire debris-flow initiation within the burn area may be significant for downstream populations, infrastructure, and wildlife and water resources. Given these findings, we recommend that residents, emergency managers, and public works departments pay close attention to weather forecasts and National-Weather-Service-issued Debris Flow and Flash Flood Outlooks, Watches, and Warnings and that residents adhere to any evacuation orders.

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Emergency Assessment of Debris-Flow Hazards from Basins Burned by the 2007 Buckweed Fire, Los Angeles County, Southern California

Cited by 2 publications

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Emergency assessment of post-fire debris-flow hazards for the 2013 Mountain fire, southern California

Emergency assessment of post-fire debris-flow hazards for the 2013 Mountain fire, southern California

Emergency assessment of post-fire debris-flow hazards for the 2013 Powerhouse fire, southern California

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