Emerging Dynamics in Crowdfunding Campaigns

Rao, Huaming; Xu, Anbang; Yang, Xiao; Fu, Wai Tat

doi:10.1007/978-3-319-05579-4_41

Cited by 16 publications

(16 citation statements)

References 13 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…They divided the campaign duration into phases of 5% of length of the respective campaign duration. Rao et al [51] then analyzed phases of the campaign duration that are more or less predictive by creating models trained by predictors with time-series data before the respective phase.…”

Section: Related Workmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Right Time for Crowd Communication during Campaigns for Sustainable Success of Crowdfunding: Evidence from Kickstarter Platform

Ryoba

et al. 2020

Sustainability

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Only a small percentage of crowdfunding projects succeed in securing funds, the fact of which puts the sustainability of crowdfunding platforms at risk. Researchers have examined the influences of phased aspects of communication, drawn from updates and comments, on success of crowdfunding campaigns, but in most cases they have focused on the combined effects of the aspects. This paper investigated campaign success contribution of various combinations of phased communication aspects from updates and comments, the best of which can help creators to successfully manage campaigns by focusing on the important communication aspects. Metaheuristic and machine learning algorithms were used to search and evaluate the best combination of phased communication aspects for predicting success using Kickstarter dataset. The study found that the number of updates in phase one, the polarity of comments in phase two, readability of updates and polarity of comments in phase three, and the polarity of comments in phase five are the most important communication aspects in predicting campaign success. Moreover, the success prediction accuracy with the aspects identified after phasing is more than the baseline model without phasing. Our findings can help crowdfunding actors to focus on the important communication aspects leading to improved likelihood of success.

show abstract

Section: Related Workmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Right Time for Crowd Communication during Campaigns for Sustainable Success of Crowdfunding: Evidence from Kickstarter Platform

Ryoba

et al. 2020

Sustainability

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Until few years ago, the pages of newspapers usually had the function that the supporters of projects ask now to the internet, specifically to web platforms (Mourao [1]). Several papers discussed in international scientific meetings, like International Symposium on Distributed Computing and Artificial Intelligence (DCAI), have also addressed this issue (Miglieta and Parisi [17] or Rao et al [18]). The common structure of crowdfunding platforms is simple for explaining -a supporter promotes a project using a web-platform, he/she uses an attractive message that clarifies the ends for the money that will be sent; then, the investors send money using digital channels and investors get a reward if certain objectives are reached (the most common objective is the minimum funding for making the project works).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 98%

Investors or Givers ? The Case of a Portuguese Crowdfunding Site

Mourão

Costa

2015

Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract. This is the first paper studying the determinants behind the different values raised by project and by investor using data collected from Portuguese crowdfunding platforms. We concluded that higher prize-moneys, expanded ad duration, and stating that the investment will be used for multiple ends tend to maximize the value that investors send to projects. However, there is a downtrend of the raised values observed at the most recent years that generates additional challenges for all interested on building, managing and promoting web-crowdfunding platforms.

show abstract

“…In any case, our data do not indicate any significant influence of the previous pledges on the current pledges, as it occurs in wealth evolution (Solomon and Richmond, 2001) or citations dynamics, which are governed by the multiplicative or selfexciting processes (Golosovsky and Solomon, 2013). This observation limits the predictive power of the time-pattern fitting techniques used in the past (Etter et al, 2013;Chung and Lee, 2015;Chen et al, 2013;Rao et al, 2014) for prediction success of the Kickstarter campaigns. By contrast, the mere detection of the "backers of type II" in daily pledge distributions is an efficient and very early predictor of success, as we explain below.…”

mentioning

confidence: 53%

“…This predictor achieves 67% accuracy at the launch phase, and approximately 90% accuracy when the campaign proceeds to the 40% stage. Rao et al (2014) used decisiontree models to investigate the extent to which simple inflows and first-order derivatives can predict campaign success. Basing on the initial 15% of money inflows they could predict success with 84% accuracy.…”

Section: Background Information On Kickstartermentioning

confidence: 99%

Early prediction of the outcome of Kickstarter campaigns: is the success due to virality?

2019

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The spread of information, opinions, preferences, and behavior across social media is a crucial feature of the current functioning of our economy, politics, and culture. One of the emerging channels for spreading social collective action and funding of novelty in all these domains is Crowdfunding on various platforms such as Kickstarter, Indiegogo, Sellaband, and may others. The exact spreading mechanism of this collective action is not wellunderstood. The general belief is that virality plays a crucial role. Namely, the common hypothesis is that the information or behavior propagates through individuals affecting one another, presumably, through the links connecting them in social networks. The aim of our study is to find out the actual spreading mechanism in one particular case: spread of financial support for individual Kickstarter campaigns. To our surprise, our studies show that "virality" plays here only a minor role. We used this result to construct a simple behavior-grounded stochastic predictor of the success of Kickstarter campaigns which is not based on the viral mechanism. The crucial feature of the model underlying the prediction algorithm is that the success of a campaign depends less on the backers influencing one another ("virality") but rather on the campaign appealing to a particular class of high-pledge backers. This appeal is usually revealed at the very beginning of the campaign and it is an excellent success predictor. The case of Kickstarter is consistent with a recently proposed generic hypothesis that popularity in social media arises more from independent responses by individuals belonging to a large homophily class rather than from percolation, self-exciting processes, and other cooperative mechanisms resulting from mutual influence between individuals. Thus, the very concept of "virality", which implies contagion between participating individuals, plays only a minor role in the success mechanism proposed hereby. A more appropriate term for the mechanism underlying the social success in our model could be "social appeal" or "social fitness".

show abstract

Emerging Dynamics in Crowdfunding Campaigns

Cited by 16 publications

References 13 publications

The Right Time for Crowd Communication during Campaigns for Sustainable Success of Crowdfunding: Evidence from Kickstarter Platform

The Right Time for Crowd Communication during Campaigns for Sustainable Success of Crowdfunding: Evidence from Kickstarter Platform

Investors or Givers ? The Case of a Portuguese Crowdfunding Site

Early prediction of the outcome of Kickstarter campaigns: is the success due to virality?

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About