Emerging new climate extremes over Europe

Ossó, Albert; Allan, Richard P.; Hawkins, Ed; Shaffrey, Len; Maraun, Douglas

doi:10.1007/s00382-021-05917-3

Cited by 33 publications

(23 citation statements)

References 44 publications

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“…Furthermore, for warm and cold extremes that display larger variability, the signals for these indices tend to emerge later over both the tropics and extratropics (e.g., King, Donat, et al., 2015; Tan et al., 2018) relative to mean temperature. Currently, most studies on TOE have been conducted at global levels, with less detailed analyses over smaller scale regions (e.g., Batibeniz et al., 2020; Gaetani et al., 2020; Ossó et al., 2021), especially for Australia (King, Donat, et al., 2015). Under different future scenarios, we aim to investigate the TOE of extreme temperatures over Australia at the subregional scale.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…TOE is defined as the time when the externally forced climate signal (i.e., forced response) emerges from the noise (i.e., natural variability), suggesting that a significant change is detected and a novel climate regime becomes evident (e.g., Hawkins & Sutton, 2012; Hawkins et al., 2020; King, Donat, et al., 2015). Estimating TOE can provide insights for mitigation strategies, adaptation planning, and scientific community, as the forced response relative to the background noise may be more relevant for the assessment of climate impacts, compared to the absolute change (Beaumont et al., 2011; Deutsch et al., 2008; Hawkins & Sutton, 2012; Hawkins et al., 2020; Ossó et al., 2021). For example, similar absolute changes in extreme temperature can result in different ecological impacts since extratropical ecosystems are usually more resilient than tropical ecosystems, as they are adapted to a more variable climate (Beaumont et al., 2011; Deutsch et al., 2008).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Projected Changes and Time of Emergence of Temperature Extremes Over Australia in CMIP5 and CMIP6

et al. 2022

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This study focuses on the projections and time of emergence (TOE) for temperature extremes over Australian regions in the phase 6 of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) models. The model outputs are based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) from the Tier 1 experiments (i.e., SSP1‐2.6, SSP2‐4.5, SSP3‐7.0, and SSP5‐8.5) in the Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP), which is compared with the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) in CMIP5 (i.e., RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5). Furthermore, two large ensembles (LEs) in CMIP6 are used to investigate the effects of internal variability on the projected changes and TOE. As shown in the temporal evolution and spatial distribution, the strongest warming levels are projected under the highest future scenario and the changes for some extremes follow a “warm‐get‐warmer” pattern over Australia. Over subregions, tropical Australia usually shows the highest warming. Compared to the RCPs in CMIP5, the multi‐model medians in SSPs are higher for some indices and commonly exhibit wider spreads, likely related to the different forcings and higher climate sensitivity in a subset of the CMIP6 models. Based on a signal‐to‐noise framework, we confirm that the emergence patterns differ greatly for different extreme indices and the large uncertainty in TOE can result from the inter‐model ranges of both signal and noise, for which internal variability contributes to the determination of the signal. We further demonstrate that the internally generated variations influence the noise. Our findings can provide useful information for mitigation strategies and adaptation planning over Australia.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Projected Changes and Time of Emergence of Temperature Extremes Over Australia in CMIP5 and CMIP6

et al. 2022

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“…According to the findings of Lukić et al [8], the annual total precipitation (when it exceeds the 95th percentile (R95p)) is increasing in the investigated area, except for the Budapest meteorological station. Ossó et al [95] revealed that from 2000 to 2016, annual values of the R95p index were 5% larger in central Europe. The authors stated that, during the winter season, R95p was positive for most of Europe, thus leading to unusually intense winter precipitation.…”

Section: North Atlantic Oscillation Impactmentioning

confidence: 99%

Detailed Analysis of Spatial–Temporal Variability of Rainfall Erosivity and Erosivity Density in the Central and Southern Pannonian Basin

et al. 2021

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Estimation of rainfall erosivity (RE) and erosivity density (ED) is essential for understanding the complex relationships between hydrological and soil erosion processes. The main objective of this study is to assess the spatial–temporal trends and variability of the RE and ED in the central and southern Pannonian Basin by using station observations and gridded datasets. To assess RE and ED, precipitation data for 14 meteorological stations, 225 grid points. and an erosion model consisting of daily, monthly, seasonal, and annual rainfall for the period of 1961–2014 were used. Annual RE and ED based on station data match spatially variable patterns of precipitation, with higher values in the southwest (2100 MJ·mm·ha−1·h−1) and southeast (1650 MJ·mm·ha−1·h−1) of the study area, but minimal values in the northern part (700 MJ·mm·ha−1·h−1). On the other hand, gridded datasets display more detailed RE and ED spatial–temporal variability, with the values ranging from 250 to 2800 MJ·mm·ha−1·h−1. The identified trends are showing increasing values of RE (ranging between 0.20 and 21.17 MJ·mm·ha−1·h−1) and ED (ranging between 0.01 and 0.03 MJ·ha−1·h−1) at the annual level. This tendency is also observed for autumn RE (from 5.55 to 0.37 MJ·mm·ha−1·h−1) and ED (from 0.05 to 0.01 MJ·ha−1·h−1), as for spring RE (from 1.00 to 0.01 MJ·mm·ha−1·h−1) and ED (from 0.04 to 0.01 MJ·ha−1·h−1), due to the influence of the large-scale processes of climate variability, with North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) being the most prominent. These increases may cause a transition to a higher erosive class in the future, thus raising concerns about this type of hydro-meteorological hazard in this part of the Pannonian Basin. The present analysis identifies seasons and places of greatest erosion risk, which is the starting point for implementing suitable mitigation measures at local to regional scales.

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“…As examples of such studies, Giorgi and Bi (2009) and Nguyen et al (2018) found in successive generations of GCM projections that in some high latitude regions, Asian regions and the Mediterranean the mean precipitation change signal emerged in the first half of the 21st century. Focusing on a number of extreme event indicators, studies such as those of Diffenbaugh et al (2017), Giorgi et al (2019), Hawkins et al (2020) and Osso et al (2021) found that global warming can lead to the occurrence of temperature and precipitation extremes of unprecedented intensity, in some cases already in the observed record of the late 20th and early 21st century.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Transitions to new climates (TNCs) in the 21st century

Giorgi

Raffaele

2022

Environ. Res. Lett.

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We introduce the concept of Transition to a New Climate (TNC) based on ensembles of model projections. Take a variable whose distribution due to interannual variability and inter-model spread of responses within a given time slice is measured by a certain compounded standard deviation. A TNC occurs when the mean change signal of the variable between a future and a reference period exceeds the sum of the standard deviations for the two periods multiplied by a factor, taken here as 1.6 (see text). We calculate TNCs of regional mean annual surface air temperature (SAT) from the CMIP6 ensemble of 21st century projections for 31 regions of the globe and four SSP scenarios. For the high end scenarios, SSP5-8.5 and SSP3-7.0, we find the occurrence of at least one TNC in all regions and a second TNC in 15 and 10 regions, respectively, primarily located in tropical and mid-latitude regions and separated by about 40-45 years. For 30 out of 31 regions there is occurrence of a single TNC in the mid-level SSP2-4.5 scenario, while only 20 out of 31 regions experience a TNC in the low end SSP1-2.6. High latitude and polar regions tend to experience fewer and later occurring TNCs than low latitude ones, due to their larger interannual variability and inter-model response. On the one hand, the occurrence of at least one TNC, and in some scenarios and regions two TNCs, imply severe stress for adaptation of natural ecosystems and different socioeconomic sectors. On the other, the pronounced reduction of TNC occurrence in the low end scenarios point to the urgency of implementing effective mitigation policies to curb global warming.

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Emerging new climate extremes over Europe

Cited by 33 publications

References 44 publications

Projected Changes and Time of Emergence of Temperature Extremes Over Australia in CMIP5 and CMIP6

Projected Changes and Time of Emergence of Temperature Extremes Over Australia in CMIP5 and CMIP6

Detailed Analysis of Spatial–Temporal Variability of Rainfall Erosivity and Erosivity Density in the Central and Southern Pannonian Basin

Transitions to new climates (TNCs) in the 21st century

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