Emerging risks from marine heat waves

Frölicher, Thomas L.; Laufkötter, Charlotte

doi:10.1038/s41467-018-03163-6

Cited by 473 publications

(355 citation statements)

References 24 publications

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“…Marine heatwaves are known to severely affect ecosystem structure via mass bleaching, low primary productivity, and wide mortality of sea animals. In comparison with terrestrial climate extreme impacts, we found fewer reports of the impact of marine climate extremes on organisms and ecosystems (Frolicher & Laufkotter, ).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 62%

Projected timing of perceivable changes in climate extremes for terrestrial and marine ecosystems

Tan

Gan

Horton

2018

Global Change Biology

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Human and natural systems have adapted to and evolved within historical climatic conditions. Anthropogenic climate change has the potential to alter these conditions such that onset of unprecedented climatic extremes will outpace evolutionary and adaptive capabilities. To assess whether and when future climate extremes exceed their historical windows of variability within impact-relevant socioeconomic, geopolitical, and ecological domains, we investigate the timing of perceivable changes (time of emergence; TOE) for 18 magnitude-, frequency-, and severity-based extreme temperature (10) and precipitation (8) indices using both multimodel and single-model multirealization ensembles. Under a high-emission scenario, we find that the signal of frequency- and severity-based temperature extremes is projected to rise above historical noise earliest in midlatitudes, whereas magnitude-based temperature extremes emerge first in low and high latitudes. Precipitation extremes demonstrate different emergence patterns, with severity-based indices first emerging over midlatitudes, and magnitude- and frequency-based indices emerging earliest in low and high latitudes. Applied to impact-relevant domains, simulated TOE patterns suggest (a) unprecedented consecutive dry day occurrence in >50% of 14 terrestrial biomes and 12 marine realms prior to 2100, (b) earlier perceivable changes in climate extremes in countries with lower per capita GDP, and (c) emergence of severe and frequent heat extremes well-before 2030 for the 590 most populous urban centers. Elucidating extreme-metric and domain-type TOE heterogeneities highlights the challenges adaptation planners face in confronting the consequences of elevated twenty-first century radiative forcing.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 62%

Projected timing of perceivable changes in climate extremes for terrestrial and marine ecosystems

Tan

Gan

Horton

2018

Global Change Biology

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“…Other sources of bias are atmospheric aerosols, and instrument design and aging. Despite these biases, NOAA‐OI has been widely used in MHW studies due to its temporal and spatial resolution, long record, and global coverage (e.g., Frölicher & Laufkötter, ; Hobday et al, ; Holbrook et al, ; Manta et al, ; Oliver et al, ; Smale et al, ). The results relative to NOAA‐OI presented here are comparable to previous MHW studies—because the same biases are present in those studies.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Sensitivity of Marine Heatwave Metrics to Ocean Model Resolution

Pilo

Holbrook

Kiss

et al. 2019

Geophysical Research Letters

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Sustained extreme temperature events in the ocean, referred to as marine heatwaves (MHWs), generate substantial ecological, social, and economic impacts. Ocean models provide insights to the drivers, persistence, and dissipation of MHWs. However, the sensitivity of MHW metrics to ocean model resolution is unknown. Here, we analyze global MHW metrics in three configurations of a global ocean-sea ice model at coarse (1 • ), eddy-permitting (0.25 • ), and eddy-rich (0.1 • ) resolutions. We show that all configurations qualitatively represent broad-scale global patterns of MHWs. These simulated MHWs are, however, weaker, longer-lasting, and less frequent than in observations. The 0.1 • configuration, despite local biases, performs best both globally and regionally. Based on these results, model projections of future MHW metrics using coarse-resolution models are expected to be biased toward weaker and less frequent MHWs, when compared with results using an eddy-rich model. Plain Language SummaryMarine heatwaves (MHWs) are persistent extreme temperatures in the ocean. They have a negative impact on marine life, fisheries, and tourism, and are becoming more frequent and more intense. One way to understand how MHWs form, intensify, and decay is by analyzing results from computer simulations of the ocean. However, these simulations are a simplification of reality, and depending on how they are designed they represent different aspects of the ocean circulation. It is still unknown how much the resolution of an ocean simulation matters when representing MHWs. In this work, we compare the performance of three ocean simulations-with low, medium, and high resolutions-when representing MHWs. We find that, regardless of their resolution, all simulations have weaker, longer, and less-frequent MHWs, when compared with the real world. Despite these differences, we find that simulations with medium and high-resolutions realistically represent global spatial patterns of MHWs. However, the ocean simulation with high resolution is preferable when studying regional patterns of MHWs. These results show how simulated MHWs differ from the real world, helping us to improve ocean simulations to be more realistic. In addition, we now better understand how computer simulations of future oceans, under climate change conditions, represent these extreme events. Key Points:• Marine heatwaves are weaker, longer-lasting, and less frequent in models than in observations • The higher the model resolution, the less biased the marine heatwave metrics • Eddy-permitting models can be used for global marine heatwave analyses, but eddy-rich models are optimal for regional analyses

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“…This NE Pacific MHW (“the Blob”) is defined as a severe MHW since SST anomalies reached 3 times the 90th percentile differences from the local climatological SSTs (Hobday et al, ). MHWs are increasing in severity and frequency, and this trend will likely continue into the future due to climate change (Oliver, Donat, et al, ); consequently, it is prudent to understand the physical drivers that start and maintain MHWs (Frölicher & Laufkötter, ; Oliver, Benthuysen, et al, ). The onset of the high SSTs in the NE Pacific was associated with a ridge of high pressure that persisted over the Gulf of Alaska region for many weeks, stagnating winds and causing anomalous atmosphere–ocean heat fluxes (Bond et al, ; Gentemann et al, ; Hartmann, ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Role of Clouds and Surface Heat Fluxes in the Maintenance of the 2013–2016 Northeast Pacific Marine Heatwave

et al. 2019

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Starting in late 2013, the Northeast (NE) Pacific Ocean experienced anomalously warm sea surface temperatures (SSTs) that persisted for over 2 years. This marine heatwave, known as “the Blob,” produced many devastating ecological impacts with socioeconomic implications for coastal communities. The warm waters observed during the NE Pacific 2013/2016 marine heatwave altered the surface energy balance and disrupted ocean–atmosphere interactions in the region. In principle, ocean–atmosphere interactions following the formation of the marine heatwave could have perpetuated warm SSTs through a positive SST‐cloud feedback. The actual situation was more complicated. While reanalysis data show a decrease in boundary layer cloud fraction and an increase in downward shortwave radiative flux at the surface coincident with warm SSTs, this was accompanied by an increase in longwave radiative fluxes at the surface, as well as an increase in sensible and latent heat fluxes out of the ocean mixed layer. The result is a small negative net heat flux anomaly (compared to the anomalies of the individual terms contributing to the net heat flux). This provides new information about the midlatitude ocean–atmosphere system while it was in a perturbed state. More specifically, a mixed layer heat budget reveals that anomalies in both the atmospheric and oceanic processes offset each other such that the anomalously warm SSTs persisted for multiple years. The results show how the atmosphere–ocean system in the NE Pacific is able to maintain itself in an anomalous state for an extended period of time.

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Emerging risks from marine heat waves

Cited by 473 publications

References 24 publications

Projected timing of perceivable changes in climate extremes for terrestrial and marine ecosystems

Projected timing of perceivable changes in climate extremes for terrestrial and marine ecosystems

Sensitivity of Marine Heatwave Metrics to Ocean Model Resolution

The Role of Clouds and Surface Heat Fluxes in the Maintenance of the 2013–2016 Northeast Pacific Marine Heatwave

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