Emission Free Energy Carriers and the Impact of Trade to Achieve the 1.5 °C Target: A Global Perspective of Hydrogen and Ammonia

Abstract

To achieve the global 1.5 °C target and realize a climate-neutral energy system, decarbonizing all sectors of final energy consumption is crucial. Green hydrogen and green ammonia emerge as pivotal in decarbonizing, particularly in the industrial sector by 2100, given their potential as emission-free energy carriers. These can be efficiently produced in regions abundant in renewable resources, with lower production costs and then exported to high-demand areas. This study explores the most cost-effective global trade routes for supplying these energy carriers, considering future electricity production, the role of renewables by 2100, global emissions, final energy consumption, and the subsequent production and logistics of hydrogen and ammonia. We introduce four scenarios: Business-as-Usual (BAU), a 1.5 °C scenario (1_5D) aligning with specific CO2 budgets, and two variants of the 1_5D scenario (SoS1 and SoS2) with varying restrictions on imports and domestic production. Employing the TIMES Integrated Assessment Model (TIAM), our findings suggest a future energy landscape dominated by the electricity sector, with solar PV contributing over 50% of green electricity by 2100. Hydrogen demand could reach 13,500 TWh compared to 155,000 TWh global energy demand. Without import constraints, Middle East Asia, due to its renewable resource richness and strategic location, could fulfill the global demand for green hydrogen and ammonia.