Emission scenario analysis for China under the global 1.5 °C target

Jiang, Kejun; He, Chenmin; Dai, Hancheng; Liu, Jia; Xu, Xiangyang

doi:10.1080/17583004.2018.1477835

Cited by 93 publications

(43 citation statements)

References 10 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…Previous studies have investigated future emission trends in China by considering detailed local policies (Wei et al, 2011;Xing et al, 2011;Zhao et al, 2013;Shi et al, 2016;Jiang et al, 2018;. These scenarios describe future emission changes based on a set of assumptions that reflect China's economic growth, energy demand, upto-date air quality, and climate mitigation policies.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…However, most of these local scenarios are disconnected from global scenarios (e.g. SSP-RCP scenarios; Rao et al, 2017), and only a few scenarios are comparable with IPCC scenario sets (Jiang et al, 2018). Usually, these local scenarios neglect the linkage between Chinese and global development pathways, and air pollutant and CO 2 emissions are investigated separately.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Dynamic projection of anthropogenic emissions in China: methodology and 2015–2050 emission pathways under a range of socio-economic, climate policy, and pollution control scenarios

et al. 2020

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract. Future trends in air pollution and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for China are of great concern to the community. A set of global scenarios regarding future socio-economic and climate developments, combining shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) with climate forcing outcomes as described by the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), was created by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Chinese researchers have also developed various emission scenarios by considering detailed local environmental and climate policies. However, a comprehensive scenario set connecting SSP–RCP scenarios with local policies and representing dynamic emission changes under local policies is still missing. In this work, to fill this gap, we developed a dynamic projection model, the Dynamic Projection model for Emissions in China (DPEC), to explore China's future anthropogenic emission pathways. The DPEC is designed to integrate the energy system model, emission inventory model, dynamic projection model, and parameterized scheme of Chinese policies. The model contains two main modules, an energy-model-driven activity rate projection module and a sector-based emission projection module. The activity rate projection module provides the standardized and unified future energy scenarios after reorganizing and refining the outputs from the energy system model. Here we use a new China-focused version of the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM-China) to project future energy demand and supply in China under different SSP–RCP scenarios at the provincial level. The emission projection module links a bottom-up emission inventory model, the Multi-resolution Emission Inventory for China (MEIC), to GCAM-China and accurately tracks the evolution of future combustion and production technologies and control measures under different environmental policies. We developed technology-based turnover models for several key emitting sectors (e.g. coal-fired power plants, key industries, and on-road transportation sectors), which can simulate the dynamic changes in the unit/vehicle fleet turnover process by tracking the lifespan of each unit/vehicle on an annual basis. With the integrated modelling framework, we connected five SSP scenarios (SSP1–5), five RCP scenarios (RCP8.5, 7.0, 6.0, 4.5, and 2.6), and three pollution control scenarios (business as usual, BAU; enhanced control policy, ECP; and best health effect, BHE) to produce six combined emission scenarios. With those scenarios, we presented a wide range of China's future emissions to 2050 under different development and policy pathways. We found that, with a combination of strong low-carbon policy and air pollution control policy (i.e. SSP1-26-BHE scenario), emissions of major air pollutants (i.e. SO2, NOx, PM2.5, and non-methane volatile organic compounds – NMVOCs) in China will be reduced by 34 %–66 % in 2030 and 58 %–87 % in 2050 compared to 2015. End-of-pipe control measures are more effective for reducing air pollutant emissions before 2030, while low-carbon policy will play a more important role in continuous emission reduction until 2050. In contrast, China's emissions will remain at a high level until 2050 under a reference scenario without active actions (i.e. SSP3-70-BAU). Compared to similar scenarios set from the CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6), our estimates of emission ranges are much lower than the estimates from the harmonized CMIP6 emissions dataset in 2020–2030, but their emission ranges become similar in the year 2050.

show abstract

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Dynamic projection of anthropogenic emissions in China: methodology and 2015–2050 emission pathways under a range of socio-economic, climate policy, and pollution control scenarios

et al. 2020

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Previous studies have investigated future emission trends in China by considering detailed local policies (Wei et al, 2011;Xing et al, 2011;Zhao et al, 2013;Shi et al, 2016;Jiang et al, 2018;Li et al, 2019). These scenarios describe future emission changes based on a set of scenarios that reflect China's economic growth, energy demand, up-to-date air quality and climate mitigation policies.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…These scenarios describe future emission changes based on a set of scenarios that reflect China's economic growth, energy demand, up-to-date air quality and climate mitigation policies. However, most of these local scenarios are disconnected from global scenarios (e.g., SSP-RCP scenarios; Rao et al, 2017), and only a few scenarios are comparable with IPCC scenario sets (Jiang et al, 2018). Usually, these local scenarios do not consider the linkage between Chinese and global development pathways, and air pollutant and CO2 emissions are investigated separately.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Dynamic projection of anthropogenic emissions in China: methodology and 2015–2050 emission pathways under a range of socioeconomic, climate policy, and pollution control scenarios

Tong¹,

Cheng²,

Yang³

et al. 2020

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract. Future trends in air pollution and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for China are of great concern to the community. A set of global scenarios regarding future socioeconomic and climate developments, combining shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) with climate forcing outcomes as described by the representative concentration pathways (RCPs), were created by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Chinese researchers have also developed various emission scenarios by considering detailed local environmental and climate policies. However, a comprehensive scenario set connecting SSP-RCP scenarios with local policies and representing dynamic emission changes under local policies is still missing. In this work, to fill this gap, we developed a dynamic projection model, the Dynamic Projection model for Emissions in China (DPEC), to explore China&#8217;s future anthropogenic emission pathways. The DPEC model is designed to integrate the energy system model, emission inventory model, dynamic projection model, and parameterized scheme of Chinese policies. The model contains two main modules, an energy-model-driven activity rate projection module and a sector-based emission projection module. The activity rate projection module provides the standardized and unified future energy scenarios after reorganizing and refining the outputs from the energy system model. Here we use a new China-focused version of the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM-China) to project future energy demand and supply in China under different SSP-RCP scenarios at the provincial level. The emission projection module links a bottom-up emission inventory model, the Multi-resolution Emission Inventory for China (MEIC), to GCAM-China, and accurately tracks the evolution of future combustion/production technologies and control measures under different environmental policies. We developed technology-based turnover models for several key emitting sectors (e.g., coal-fired power plants, key industries, and on-road transportation sectors), which can simulate the dynamic changes in the unit/vehicle fleet turnover process by tracking the lifespan of each unit/vehicle on an annual basis. With the integrated modelling framework, we connected five SSP scenarios (SSP1-5), five RCP scenarios (RCP 8.5, 7.0, 6.0, 4.5, and 2.6), and three pollution control scenarios (business as usual (BAU), enhanced control policy (ECP), and best health effect (BHE)) to produce six combined emission scenarios. With those scenarios, we presented a wide range of China's future emissions to 2050 under different development and policy pathways. We found that, with a combination of strong low-carbon policy and air pollution control policy (i.e., SSP1-26-BHE scenario), emissions of major air pollutants (i.e., SO2, NOx, PM2.5, and NMVOCs) in China will be reduced by 34&#8211;66&#8201;% in 2030 and 58&#8211;87&#8201;% in 2050 compared to 2015. End-of-pipe control measures are more effective for reducing air pollutant emissions before 2030, while low-carbon policy will play more important role for continuous emission reduction until 2050. On contrast, China's emissions will remain high level until 2050 under a reference scenario without active action (i.e., SSP3-70-BAU). Compared to similar scenarios set in the CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6), our estimates of emission ranges are much lower than the estimates from the CMIP6 in 2020/2030, but their emission ranges become similar in the year 2050.

show abstract

“…Energy system transition will be the primary means by which China reduces its emissions and contributes to the overarching global goals. The recent studies (e.g., Duan et al, 2018 ; Gallagher et al, 2019 ; Jiang et al, 2018 , Jiang et al, 2018a ; Lugovoy et al, 2018 ; Mi et al, 2017 ; Wang and Chen, 2018 ; Zhou et al, 2019 ) are concentrated on assessing China's NDC CO 2 trajectories until 2030 or 2°C-aligned energy system changes until 2050 by using a bottom-up modeling. They showed that China, with additional efforts, could be able to overachieve its NDC targets including to achieve an earlier CO 2 peaking.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Implications of near-term mitigation on China's long-term energy transitions for aligning with the Paris goals

et al. 2020

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

In the international community, there are many appeals to ratcheting up the current nationally determined contributions (NDCs), in order to narrow the 2030 global emissions gap with the Paris goals. Near-term mitigation has a direct impact on the required efforts beyond 2030 to control warming within 2°C or 1.5°C successfully. In this study, implications of near-term mitigation on China's long-term energy transitions until 2100 for aligning with the Paris goals, are quantified using a refined Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) with six mitigation scenarios. Results show that intensifying near-term mitigation will alleviate China's transitional challenges during 2030–2050 and long-term reliance on carbon dioxide removal technologies (CDR). Each five-year earlier peaking of CO 2 allows almost a five-year later carbon neutrality of China's energy system. To align with 2°C (1.5°C), peaking in 2025 instead of 2030 reduces the requirement of CDR over the century by 17% (13%). Intensifying near-term mitigation also tends to have economic benefits to China's Paris-aligned energy transitions. Under 2°C (1.5°C), peaking in 2025 instead of 2030, with larger near-term mitigation costs by 1.3 (1.6) times, has the potential to reduce China's aggregate mitigation costs throughout the century by 4% (6%). Although in what way China's NDC is to be updated is determined by decision-makers, transitional and economic benefits suggest China to try its best to pursue more ambitious near-term mitigation in accordance with its latest national circumstances and development needs.

show abstract

Emission scenario analysis for China under the global 1.5 °C target

Cited by 93 publications

References 10 publications

Dynamic projection of anthropogenic emissions in China: methodology and 2015–2050 emission pathways under a range of socio-economic, climate policy, and pollution control scenarios

Dynamic projection of anthropogenic emissions in China: methodology and 2015–2050 emission pathways under a range of socio-economic, climate policy, and pollution control scenarios

Dynamic projection of anthropogenic emissions in China: methodology and 2015–2050 emission pathways under a range of socioeconomic, climate policy, and pollution control scenarios

Implications of near-term mitigation on China's long-term energy transitions for aligning with the Paris goals

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About