Emissions Scenarios: A Final Response

Grübler, Arnulf; Nakićenović, Nebojša; Alcamo, Joe; Davis, Ged; Fenhann, Jørgen Villy; Hare, Bill; Mori, Shunsuke; Pepper, Bill; Pitcher, Hugh; Riahi, Keywan; Rogner, Holger; Rovere, Emilo Lebre La; Sankovski, Alexei; Schlesinger, Michael E.; Shukla, P.R.; Swart, Rob; Victor, Nadejda; Jung, Tae Yong

doi:10.1260/095830504322986466

Cited by 39 publications

(29 citation statements)

References 9 publications

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“…The resulting scenarios have been severely criticized (Castles and Henderson 2003a;Castles and Henderson 2003b;Girod et al 2009;Gruebler et al 2004;O'Neill and Nakicenovic 2008;Pielke et al 2008), but AR4 glossed over the problems (Fisher et al 2007). As complaints by referees were ignored, this can only be characterized as a deliberate misrepresentation of the literature-a violation of the IPCC mandate.…”

Section: Typical Problems Of Monopoliesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Regulating knowledge monopolies: the case of the IPCC

Tol

2011

Climatic Change

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The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has a monopoly on the provision of climate policy advice at the international level and a strong market position in national policy advice. This may have been the intention of the founders of the IPCC. I argue that the IPCC has a natural monopoly, as a new entrant would have to invest time and effort over a longer period to perhaps match the reputation, trust, goodwill, and network of the IPCC. The IPCC is a not-for-profit organization, and it is run by nominal volunteers. It therefore cannot engage in the price-gouging that is typical of monopolies. However, the IPCC has certainly taken up tasks outside its mandate. The IPCC has been accused of haughtiness. Innovation is slow. Quality may have declined. And the IPCC may have used its power to hinder competitors. There are all things that monopolies tend to do, against the public interest. The IPCC would perform better if it were regulated by an independent body which audits the IPCC procedures and assesses its performance; if outside organizations would be allowed to bid for the production of reports and the provision of services under the IPCC brand; and if policy makers would encourage potential competitors to the IPCC.

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Section: Typical Problems Of Monopoliesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Regulating knowledge monopolies: the case of the IPCC

Tol

2011

Climatic Change

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“…"SRES was designed to provide insights on uncertainty from a range of plausible scenarios" (Grübler et al 2004). SRES concludes a high uncertainty of future GHG emissions, ranging from low levels (B1, A1T) to very high levels (A2, A1FI) in 2100 (see Fig.…”

Section: Description Of Ipcc Emissions Scenariosmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Nevertheless the plausibility, possibility, persistency, and/or probability of the scenarios has been the main topic of dispute in the literature (Allen 2003;Grübler and Nakicenovic 2001;Kriegler and Bruckner 2004;Lempert et al 2004;Lomborg 2001, p280-287;Pittock 2002;Pittock et al 2001;Reilly et al 2001;Schneider 2001;Schneider and Mastrandrea 2005;Webster et al 2003), especially the Castles and Henderson critique (Castles and Henderson 2003a,b;Grübler et al 2004;Nakicenovic et al 2003). In this section, the economic development in the A1 AIM marker scenario (see Fig.…”

Section: The Use Of Descriptive Scenarios To Assess a Normative Problemmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In a nutshell, SRES concludes that scenarios with different socio-economic drivers can lead to similar cumulative emissions, while similar driving forces can branch out into different categories of cumulative emissions (SRES, p315). According to some authors, SRES contains the message that lower GDP does not automatically leads to lower emissions and that high GDP does not automatically lead to higher emissions (Grübler et al 2004). The concept of sustainable development is an integrated part of SRES.…”

Section: The Risk Of Simplificationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Their main points of criticism were the metric for economic output, Market Exchange Rates (MER) rather than Purchasing Power Parities (PPP), and the plausibility of the scenarios that assume gap-closing between income levels in OECD countries and non-OECD countries. A group of authors connected with SRES responded to the critique, followed by a reply from Castles and Henderson, and again a response from a group of SRES authors (Castles and Henderson 2003a,b;Grübler et al 2004;Nakicenovic et al 2003). Castles and Henderson argue that, when PPP is used instead of MER, the base-year levels of developing countries are much higher.…”

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confidence: 99%

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Communicating uncertainty in the IPCC’s greenhouse gas emissions scenarios

Schenk

Lensink

2007

Climatic Change

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The issue of climate change required the development of the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) by the IPCC. The complexity of the subject and the unique science-policy relation resulted in confusion and discussions appeared in popular media like The Economist. This paper reviews scenario literature and SRES, identifies the most vulnerable elements in the communication of SRES. In the communication of GHG emission scenarios through SRES, the weaknesses that have been identified by the authors of this paper are the normative character of climate change assessment, the plausibility of the scenarios, and the risk of simplification of complex messages. The causes of these communicative issues have been identified as the intrinsic difficulties of interdisciplinary science, the uniqueness of the science-policy relation, and the need for a high degree of transparency. This paper suggests improving future communication of complex messages from scientists to their audience by means of clear reasoning when communicating with non-scientists, explicitly normative emission scenarios, and increased stakeholder participation in scenario development.

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