Emotional foundations of the public climate change divide

Abstract

The worldwide rise of climate skeptical political leaders endangers sorely needed political efforts to mitigate climate change. In addition, climate skepticism expressed by the political elites may spread to the electorate, thus ultimately affecting mitigation actions at the population level. It is crucial to better understand the psychological mechanisms underlying elite influences on public opinion formation and polarization. Here we show how affective processes contribute to these top-down influences using longitudinal data in the context of the 2016 U.S. presidential election. Findings revealed a general decrease in climate change beliefs immediately after the presidential election (November 2016). We moreover found an increase in positive emotions and a decrease in negative emotions toward the Republican Party after the election of President Trump. Most importantly, the positive emotional shift towards the Republican Party mediated the decrease in climate change beliefs: Individuals with pronounced increases in positive emotions toward the Republican Party most strongly reduced their belief in climate change after the presidential election. The effect was intensified among Republican partisans, pointing towards a mechanism underlying political polarization. Using data based on a major real-world political event, our findings illustrate how partisans update their beliefs by referring to the positions of relevant political authorities. We moreover demonstrate how emotions drive top-down influences of political leaders on partisans' opinions and beliefs. Finally, our findings reveal how intensified emotions can contribute to the aggravation of the public climate change divide. Given the climatic changes observed in recent years, developing a more sustainable lifestyle is among the most pressing tasks facing our planet and its inhabitants (IPCC 2014). Political elites play

Translating climate beliefs into action in a changing political landscape

“…We cannot be sure if there is some lingering unaccounted-for artifact that may drive the observed relations between support for Trump and time on origin and impact climate beliefs. However, our results parallel those of Hahnel et al (2019) who found similar effects using within-participants pre-and post-election data, giving more confidence to the conclusions we can draw from our findings. It is important to triangulate findings across multiple methods, as together, the conclusions drawn from multiple independent studies are more robust than conclusions that can be drawn from a single study.…”

“…Our results and those from similar studies (i.e., Hahnel et al 2019) are theoretically and practically important, and more research is needed to improve our causal understanding of the following: to what extent and why supporters' climate-related beliefs align with political leaders' opinions; why that alignment may change when the leader rises to power; and how these changes in climate beliefs ultimately affect climate actions and policy support. Additionally, as climate change becomes an increasingly urgent and more frequently debated political topic, it is important to examine how the rise of climate-friendly political leaders influences public engagement with climate change and whether that influence occurs through a similar process observed here.…”

“…However, despite the general scientific (IPCC 2018) and public (Steg 2018) consensus about the existence and human causes of climate change, notable climate skeptics have risen to political prominence over the past few years (e.g., Contestabile 2018). Political leaders play a critical role in climate change mitigation, not only via climate policies and international negotiations but also by influencing the general public's beliefs about climate change (Brulle et al 2012;Hahnel et al 2019;Hahnel and Brosch 2016;Nisbet and Kotcher 2009). In turn, climate beliefs might affect individuals' climate actions, including climate-friendly behavior and policy preferences (e.g., Dietz et al 2015;Sohlberg 2016;Moser 2009).…”

Political Psychology in the Digital (mis)Information age: A Model of News Belief and Sharing

“…President Trump has repeatedly expressed his skepticism of climate change on social media (Matthews, 2017). Following his election in 2016, belief in climate change actually decreased in the United States, for both Republicans and Democrats, suggesting that people update their beliefs based on cues from political leaders (Hahnel et al., 2020; see also Zawadzki et al., 2020). Interestingly, the changes in climate change belief from pre‐ to postelection were mediated by increased positive feelings toward the Republican party (by both Republicans and Democrats), and those with the most pronounced increases were the ones who most strongly reduced their climate change beliefs.…”

The dimensions of public opinion on climate change: belief, issue salience and support for government action

“…In some countries, major political parties and politicians deny the science of climate change. For example, in the US, the Republican party and President Trump routinely cast doubt on the existence and seriousness of climate change (Hahnel et al, 2020;Porter et al, 2019). Politicians holding power who deny climate change, will -as a matter of course -do what they can to slow or halt political action on climate change.…”