Empirical estimate of the signal content of Holocene temperature proxy records

Reschke, Maria; Rehfeld, Kira; Laepple, Thomas

doi:10.5194/cp-2018-154

Cited by 6 publications

(21 citation statements)

References 68 publications

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“…This should increase the probability of the proxy predictors constraining the pool of potential analogues (compare the results in Appendix A1). Often such consistency is an implicit or explicit assumption (compare, e.g., Reschke et al, 2018). On the 30 other hand, the analogue approach, in theory, should allow using different parameters and calibrations if the comparison is to the same target.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…More importantly here, we assume that all the different recorders, aquatic or otherwise, 15 represent temperature at the surface. This is an assumption of convenience in view of potential habitat biases of the proxy records (Telford et al, 2013;Tierney and Tingley, 2015;Kučera, 2017, 2018;Rebotim et al, 2017;Tierney and Tingley, 2018;Dolman and Laepple, 2018;Reschke et al, 2018;Kretschmer et al, 2016Kretschmer et al, , 2018Malevich et al, 2019;Tierney et al, 2019). 4 https://doi.org /10.5194/cp-2019-170 Preprint.…”

Section: Variable Of Interestmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…First, we have to consider the age or dating uncertainty. Second, the measured proxy data and the temperatures inferred from them are affected by various sources of uncertainty (compare, e.g., Dolman and Laepple, 2018;Reschke et al, 2018;Jensen et al, 2018, and their references).…”

Section: Proxy Uncertaintymentioning

confidence: 99%

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Technical Note: The analogue method for millennial-scale, spatiotemporal climate reconstructions

Bothe

Zorita

2020

Preprint

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Abstract. Inferences about climate states and climate variability of the Holocene and the deglaciation rely on sparse paleo-observational proxy data. Combining these sparse proxies with output from climate simulations is a means for increasing the understanding of the climate throughout the last ~ 21 millennia. The analogue method is one approach to do this. The method takes a number of sparse proxy records and then searches within a pool of more complete information (e.g., model simulations) for analogues according to a similarity criterion. The analogue method is non-linear and allows considering the spatial covariance among proxy records. Beyond the last two millennia, we have to rely on proxies that are not only sparse in space but also irregular in time and with considerably uncertain dating. This poses additional challenges for the analogue method, which have seldom been addressed previously. The method has to address the uncertainty of the proxy-inferred variables as well as the uncertain dating. It has to cope with the irregular and non-synchronous sampling of different proxies. Here, we propose a specific way of dealing with these obstacles. We use uncertainty ellipses for tuples of individual proxy values and dates and, thereby, consider the dating as well as the data uncertainty. Results highlight the potential of the method to reconstruct the climate of the last ~ 15 millennia. However, in the present case, the reconstructions show little variability of their central estimates but large uncertainty ranges. The reconstruction by analogue provides not only a regional average record but also allows assessing the climate state compliant with the used proxy predictors. These fields reveal that uncertainty are also large locally. Our results emphasize the ambiguity of reconstructions from spatially sparse and temporally uncertain, irregularly sampled proxies.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Variable Of Interestmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Technical Note: The analogue method for millennial-scale, spatiotemporal climate reconstructions

Bothe

Zorita

2020

Preprint

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“…Such proxy records reveal imprints of past climatic conditions created by, for example, impacts on the calcification of the shells of marine organisms (Nürnberg et al, 1996), now preserved in sea sediments, on terrestrial pollen assemblages archived in lake sediments (Birks and Seppä, 2004), or on stable water isotopes that can be recovered from ice cores (Jouzel et al, 1997). Proxy-based reconstructions, however, are associated with notable uncertainties that are often much larger than those of instrumental data (Münch and Laepple, 2018;Reschke et al, 2019) and that can emerge from a variety of sources -they are essentially highly noisy and distorted observations of selected climate variables. Hence, an important task of the paleoclimate research field is to pro-vide thorough quantitative estimates of these reconstruction uncertainties.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…It turns out that a careful and systematic investigation of these reconstruction uncertainties is indispensable if we are to properly exploit the source of information contained in proxy archives, for such important issues like the estimation of the future evolution of natural and forced climate variability. Until now, however, reconstruction uncertainty estimates have often lacked the required accuracy (Lohmann et al, 2013;Reschke et al, 2019). In particular, one issue that deserves more detailed consideration is the timescale dependence of the reconstruction uncertainties (Amrhein, 2020).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A spectral approach to estimating the timescale-dependent uncertainty of paleoclimate records – Part 1: Theoretical concept

2020

Self Cite

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Abstract. Proxy records represent an invaluable source of information for reconstructing past climatic variations, but they are associated with considerable uncertainties. For a systematic quantification of these reconstruction errors, however, knowledge is required not only of their individual sources but also of their auto-correlation structure as this determines the timescale dependence of their magnitude, an issue that has been often ignored until now. Here a spectral approach to uncertainty analysis is provided for paleoclimate reconstructions obtained from single sediment proxy records. The formulation in the spectral domain rather than the time domain allows for an explicit demonstration and quantification of the timescale dependence that is inherent in any proxy-based reconstruction uncertainty. This study is published in two parts. In this first part, the theoretical concept is presented, and analytic expressions are derived for the power spectral density of the reconstruction error of sediment proxy records. The underlying model takes into account the spectral structure of the climate signal, seasonal and orbital variations, bioturbation, sampling of a finite number of signal carriers, and uncorrelated measurement noise, and it includes the effects of spectral aliasing and leakage. The uncertainty estimation method, based upon this model, is illustrated by simple examples. In the second part of this study, published separately, the method is implemented in an application-oriented context, and more detailed examples are presented.

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Testing the consistency of Holocene and Last Glacial Maximum spatial correlations in temperature proxy records

Reschke

Kröner

Laepple

2020

J Quaternary Science

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Holocene temperature proxy records are commonly used in quantitative synthesis and model-data comparisons. However, comparing correlations between time series from records collected in proximity to one another with the expected correlations based on climate model simulations indicates either regional or noisy climate signals in Holocene temperature proxy records. In this study, we evaluate the consistency of spatial correlations present in Holocene proxy records with those found in data from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Specifically, we predict correlations expected in LGM proxy records if the only difference to Holocene correlations would be due to more time uncertainty and more climate variability in the LGM. We compare this simple prediction to the actual correlation structure in the LGM proxy records. We found that time series data of ice-core stable isotope records and planktonic foraminifera Mg/Ca ratios were consistent between the Holocene and LGM periods, while time series of Uk'37 proxy records were not as we found no correlation between nearby LGM records. Our results support the finding of highly regional or noisy marine proxy records in the compilation analysed here and suggest the need for further studies on the role of climate proxies and the processes of climate signal recording and preservation.

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Empirical estimate of the signal content of Holocene temperature proxy records

Cited by 6 publications

References 68 publications

Technical Note: The analogue method for millennial-scale, spatiotemporal climate reconstructions

Technical Note: The analogue method for millennial-scale, spatiotemporal climate reconstructions

A spectral approach to estimating the timescale-dependent uncertainty of paleoclimate records – Part 1: Theoretical concept

Testing the consistency of Holocene and Last Glacial Maximum spatial correlations in temperature proxy records

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