Empirical Model for the Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Spatial Pattern of Water Availability in Nigeria

Shiru, Mohammed Sanusi; Chung, Eun Sung; Shahid, Shamsuddin

doi:10.1007/978-981-15-5772-9_19

Cited by 5 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 56 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…Shiru et al (2021b) projected TWS of Nigeria for RCPs and also projected a decrease in TWS, ranging from 0-12 mm for RCP2.6 to 0-17 cm for RCP8.5 at the end of the century. Shiru et al (2021a) also used selected GCMs for projection of TWS in Nigeria, showing a decrease by 12 mm in the wet season. The present study also showed a decrease in TWS over most of the ADB for higher SSPs in the range of 0 to 40 mm.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Projection of future water availability in the Amu Darya Basin

Salehie,

Jamal,

Ismail

et al. 2024

Intl Journal of Climatology

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Water scarcity is a major challenge facing many regions worldwide, especially arid and semi‐arid areas that are increasingly vulnerable to climate change. This study aimed to project water availability in the Amu Darya Basin (ADB) of Central Asia under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase Six (CMIP6) during two upcoming periods (2020–2059 and 2060–2099). The study used a robust machine learning approach, namely a Random Forest (RF) model, to simulate Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) Terrestrial Water Storage (TWS) data from precipitation and maximum and minimum temperatures (Tmax and Tmin). It then incorporated precipitation, Tmax and Tmin from four selected CMIP6 GCMs, into a water storage model to project spatiotemporal changes in water availability across the basin. The study also evaluated the relative impacts of land use and population on TWS. Results indicate an increase in TWS by approximately 4 cm in the basin's eastern, northwestern and southwestern regions in both future periods, while a decrease by approximately −4 cm in the remaining areas. These projections suggest that TWS will decline in densely populated regions and increase in certain intensively cultivated areas. The most pronounced increase in TWS is anticipated in the snow‐covered Tundra climate zone of the basin. This is attributed to the melting of glaciers, which contributes to runoff in the tributaries of the Amu River. The findings highlight the importance of considering climate change and socioeconomic factors when projecting water availability in arid and semi‐arid regions. The projected changes in TWS have important implications for water resources management in the ADB, particularly in densely populated and intensively cultivated areas.

show abstract

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Projection of future water availability in the Amu Darya Basin

Salehie,

Jamal,

Ismail

et al. 2024

Intl Journal of Climatology

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…In addition, the country has one of the highest rates of population growth, which would need more water resources, a resource grossly affected by climate. Water resources in the country has been reported to be declining (MacDonald et al, 2005) and a recent study projected groundwater levels will drop to as much as 12 m in some parts of the country in the future (Shiru et al, 2020a).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Performance evaluation of CMIP6 global climate models for selecting models for climate projection over Nigeria

Shiru

Chung

2021

Theor Appl Climatol

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

This study assessed the performances of 13 GCMs of the CMIP6 in replicating precipitation and maximum and minimum temperatures over Nigeria during 1984Nigeria during -2014 in order to identify the best GCMs for multi model ensemble aggregation for climate projection. The study uses the monthly full reanalysis precipitation product Version 6 of Global Precipitation Climatology Centre and the maximum and minimum temperature CRU version TS v. 3.23 products of Climatic Research Unit as reference data. The study applied five statistical indices namely, normalized root mean square error, percentage of bias, Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency, and coefficient of determination; and volumetric efficiency. Compromise programming (CP) was then used in the aggregation of the scores of the different GCMs for the variables. Spatial assessment, probability distribution function, Taylor diagram, and mean monthly assessments were used in confirming the findings from the CP. The study revealed that CP was able to uniformly evaluate the GCMs even though there were some contradictory results in the statistical indicators. Spatial assessment of the GCMs in relation to the observed showed the highest ranked GCMs by the CP were able to better reproduce the observed properties. The least ranking GCMs were observed to have both spatially overestimated or underestimated precipitation and temperature over the study area. In combination with the other measures, the GCMs were ranked using the final scores from the CP. IPSL-CM6A-LR, NESM3, CMCC-CM2-SR5, and ACCESS-ESM1-5 were the highest ranking GCMs for precipitation. For maximum temperature, INM.CM4-8, BCC-CSM2-MR, MRI-ESM2-0, and ACCESS-ESM1-5 ranked the highest while AWI-CM-1-1-MR, IPSL-CM6A-LR, INM.CM5-0, and CanESM5 ranked the highest for minimum temperature.

show abstract

“…Compared to other downstream processes for production of biodiesel, the process of cultivation of microalgae is water intensive [204,205]. While Nigeria is blessed with both surface and groundwater resources, their distribution is not uniform [206] and the resources have been or are expected to decline in some areas due to decrease in rainfall [207,208]. Therefore, the cultivation of microalgae in areas with lesser water resources poses a threat to the resource in such regions.…”

Section: Barriers To Biofuel Commercialization In Nigeriamentioning

confidence: 99%

Towards Commercialization of Third‐Generation Biofuel Industry for Sustainable Energy Production in Nigeria

Shiru

2021

ChemBioEng Reviews

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Due to the potential depletion of fossil fuels and the need for the shift from its use to combat the aggravated impacts of climate change, the unsustainable use of these conventional fuels has been widely recognized. This has prompted commercialization of biofuels as an alternative sustainable fuel. This study summarizes the potential of third-generation biomass feedstocks, algae, for biofuel production on the example of Nigeria, where most biofuel plants still use first-and second-generation feedstocks, which have led to food and land mass competition. It is shown that the production and consumption of third-generation biofuel is at its infancy in the coun-try. It was also found that the climatic conditions in Nigeria are conducive for the cultivation of microalgae, which are the primary sources of the third-generation biofuel, even though there are barriers such as inadequate reliable resource database for investment decisions and technical expertise to develop and deploy biofuels in commercial form. The large population of Nigeria is a potential market for biofuel, therefore, commercialization of the third-generation biofuel can be a viable alternative energy source to conventional fossil fuels and it can generate employment for many in the country.

show abstract

Empirical Model for the Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Spatial Pattern of Water Availability in Nigeria

Cited by 5 publications

References 56 publications

Projection of future water availability in the Amu Darya Basin

Projection of future water availability in the Amu Darya Basin

Performance evaluation of CMIP6 global climate models for selecting models for climate projection over Nigeria

Towards Commercialization of Third‐Generation Biofuel Industry for Sustainable Energy Production in Nigeria

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About