Empirical Modeling Analysis of Potential Commute Demand for Carsharing in Shanghai, China

Abstract

Carsharing is an emerging commute mode in China, which may produce social and environmental benefits. This paper aims to develop a commute mode choice model to explore influential factors and quantify their impacts on the potential demand for carsharing in Shanghai. The sample data were obtained from a revealed preference (RP) and stated preference (SP) survey and integrated with level-of-service attributes from road and transit networks. The RP survey collected commuters’ trip information and socioeconomic and demographic characteristics. In the SP survey, four hypothetical scenarios were designed based on carsharing’s unit price to collect commuters’ willingness to shift to carsharing. Data fusion method was applied to fuse RP and SP models. The joint model identified the target group of choosing carsharing with certain socioeconomic and demographic attributes, such as gender, age, income, household member, household vehicle ownership, and so on. It also indicates that the value of time (VOT) for carsharing is 35.56 RMB Yuan (5.08 US Dollar)/h. The elasticity and marginal effect analysis show that the direct elasticity of carsharing’s fare on its potential demand is −0.660, while the commuters, who have a more urgent plan on car purchase or are more familiar with the carsharing service, have much higher probabilities to choose carsharing as their commute modes. The developed model is expected to be applied to the urban travel demand model, providing references for the formulation of carsharing operation scheme and government policy.

Exploring the Application of the Linear Poisson Autoregressive Model for Analyzing the Dynamic Impact of Traffic Laws on Fatal Traffic Accident Frequency

“…ese time series models may not be applicable to discrete time series variables (e.g., traffic accident count data). To consider both time series and discrete characteristics of the response variables, an integer-valued autoregressive (INAR) Poisson model [30][31][32][33][34] was developed. However, the dynamic characteristics of the influential factors were not adequately described in the INAR model.…”

Carsharing: a systematic literature review and research agenda

“…For example, lack of prior experience of similar services (such as car rental) is likely to deter certain potential customer groups from using carsharing. Both Duan et al (2020), who used a stated preference survey to quantify the impacts of potential carsharing demands in Shanghai, and Zhang and Li (2020), who tested a model based on the theory of planned behavior in a study involving university students in Qingdao, China, reported that individuals who are familiar with car rental programs are more inclined to use carsharing.…”

Sharing economy development in urban transport systems

“…Интересно, что история каршеринга началась в Европе ещё в 1940-х гг. Однако спрос на данный вид услуг значительно вырос в 1990-е гг., и они стали оказываться в странах Северной и Южной Америки, Азии и в Австралии [2]. Несмотря на то, что каршеринг является наиболее распространённой формой совместной мобильности, помимо него существует множество других бизнес-моделей в рассматриваемом сегменте транспортного рынка.…”