Empirically grounded technology forecasts and the energy transition

Way, Rupert; Ives, Matthew C.; Mealy, Penny; Farmer, J. Doyne

doi:10.1016/j.joule.2022.08.009

Cited by 263 publications

(176 citation statements)

References 70 publications

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“…To put the conventional growth (50% annual growth of electrolyzer capacity) of green-fuel capacity into context: historical solar PV capacity growth from 2009 to 2019 was between 24 and 89% per year, depending on the geographical region (low for EU, high for non-OECD); and historical wind-capacity growth from 2009–2019 was between 11 and 28% per year depending on the geographical region (low for EU, high for non-OECD) (BP, 2020). (For more details, see section 13 of the supplemental information , where we discuss different upscaling rates for capacities 50 ) However, suppose it becomes more and more apparent that electrolytic green fuels are the only solution to achieving a green transition in hard-to-abate sectors. In that case, growth rates beyond solar PV growth, which at the time (2009–2019) was not and still is not the single option to invest in to generate renewable electricity, might be expected to meet or even to exceed the 1.5°C (NZ 2050) emissions reduction target.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Requirements for a maritime transition in line with the Paris Agreement

Franz¹,

Campion²,

Shapiro-Bengtsen³

et al. 2022

iScience

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In that case, growth rates beyond solar PV growth, which at the time (2009–2019) was not and still is not the single option to invest in to generate renewable electricity, might be expected to meet or even to exceed the 1.5°C (NZ 2050) emissions reduction target. 50 …”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Requirements for a maritime transition in line with the Paris Agreement

Franz¹,

Campion²,

Shapiro-Bengtsen³

et al. 2022

iScience

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“…Empirically grounded technology forecasts call for a rapid transition towards a decarbonized, global energy supply. Scenarios are outlined which may become critical for addressing climate change while at the same time will likely result in trillions of dollars net energy cost savings [ 1 ]. Storage of intermittent, renewable energy is thereby considered a key technology for realizing the anticipated energy transition [ 2 , 3 , 4 ].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Substantial Na-Ion Storage at High Current Rates: Redox-Pseudocapacitance through Sodium Oxide Formation

Portenkirchner

2022

Nanomaterials

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Batteries and supercapacitors, both governed by electrochemical processes, operate by different electrochemical mechanisms which determine their characteristic energy and power densities. Battery materials store large amounts of energy by ion intercalation. Electrical double-layer capacitors store charge through surface-controlled ion adsorption which leads to high power and rapid charging, but much smaller amounts of energy stored. Pseudocapacitive materials offer the promise to combine these properties by storing charge through surface-controlled, battery-like redox reactions but at high rates approaching those of electrochemical double-layer capacitors. This work compares the pseudo-capacitive charge storage characteristics of self-organized titanium dioxide (TiO2−x) nanotubes (NTs) to flat TiO2−x surface films to further elucidate the proposed charge storage mechanism within the formed surface films. By comparing TiO2−x NTs to flat TiO2−x surface films, having distinctively different oxide mass and surface area ratios, it is shown that NaO2 and Na2O2 formation, which constitutes the active surface film material, is governed by the metal oxide bulk. Our results corroborate that oxygen diffusion from the lattice oxide is key to NaO2 and Na2O2 formation.

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“…Change is heading in the right direction, but well below the required pace generation may occur faster than projected(Way et al 2021), potentially improving this indicator toward being on track.…”

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confidence: 99%