Empirische Analyse sicherheitskritischer Ereignisse in urbanisierten Gebieten

Fischer, Kai; Siebold, Uli; Vogelbacher, Georg; Häring, Ivo; Riedel, Werner

doi:10.1002/bate.201300041

Cited by 8 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 12 publications

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“…Pre-defined construction types are applied to assess the physical damage effects of buildings with the use of engineering models [24,25], if an adverse event occurs. The susceptibility, i.e., the frequency of a hazardous event and the exposition of single urban objects, is derived with historical statistical data from the Terror Event Database [26,27], depending on the object use, the threat type and the region. Based on these essential findings, the approach is in this paper subsequently enlarged to compare the risk-based results between different morphologies in a quantitative way.…”

Section: Generalized Framework To Quantify Expected Losses and Recovementioning

confidence: 99%

“…As shown in Figure 2, a first step includes the quantitative susceptibility analysis. Statistical information from the Terror Event Database [26,27] are combined with the geospatial characteristics of a city to evaluate possible threat positions. Figure 4 visualizes the results with historical data of Western Europe and give the information of possible locations with higher susceptibilities.…”

Section: Empirical and Spatial Distributed Evaluation Of Disruptive Ementioning

confidence: 99%

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Morphology Dependent Assessment of Resilience for Urban Areas

et al. 2018

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Abstract:The formation of new threats and the increasing complexity of urban built infrastructures underline the need for more robust and sustainable systems, which are able to cope with adverse events. Achieving sustainability requires the strengthening of resilience. Currently, a comprehensive approach for the quantification of resilience of urban infrastructure is missing. Within this paper, a new generalized mathematical framework is presented. A clear definition of terms and their interaction builds the basis of this resilience assessment scheme. Classical risk-based as well as additional components are aligned along the timeline before, during and after disruptive events, to quantify the susceptibility, the vulnerability and the response and recovery behavior of complex systems for multiple threat scenarios. The approach allows the evaluation of complete urban surroundings and enables a quantitative comparison with other development plans or cities. A comprehensive resilience framework should cover at least preparation, prevention, protection, response and recovery. The presented approach determines respective indicators and provides decision support, which enhancement measures are more effective. Hence, the framework quantifies for instance, if it is better to avoid a hazardous event or to tolerate an event with an increased robustness. An application example is given to assess different urban forms, i.e., morphologies, with consideration of multiple adverse events, like terrorist attacks or earthquakes, and multiple buildings. Each urban object includes a certain number of attributes, like the object use, the construction type, the time-dependent number of persons and the value, to derive different performance targets. The assessment results in the identification of weak spots with respect to single resilience indicators. Based on the generalized mathematical formulation and suitable combination of indicators, this approach can quantify the resilience of urban morphologies, independent of possible single threat types and threat locations.

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Section: Generalized Framework To Quantify Expected Losses and Recovementioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Empirical and Spatial Distributed Evaluation Of Disruptive Ementioning

confidence: 99%

Morphology Dependent Assessment of Resilience for Urban Areas

et al. 2018

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“…Besides a further detailed analysis of the terrorism event data, Fischer et al (2014) also give examples of mapping selected empirical assessment quantities on urban environments. They describe the ontology used within the database as well as how to identify worldwide regions of different level of terroristic activity.…”

Section: Overviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Sample applications and, in particular, topic-specific extensions as well as differences of TED to existing databases are also detailed in ) focusing on statistical methods, ) focusing on terrorist events on airports and (Ziehm and Häring 2011) on terrorist events in harbours. The geographic regions G h used are motivated and defined in Fischer et al (2014). Figures 7, 8 and 9 in the ''Appendix'' give an overview of the data used.…”

Section: Database and Empirical Input Data Usedmentioning

confidence: 99%

Empirical Susceptibility, Vulnerability and Risk Analysis for Resilience Enhancement of Urban Areas to Terrorist Events

et al. 2016

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The worldwide progressing urbanization increases the need to consider threats like terrorism or natural disasters when planning or redesigning urban areas. The paper shows how to assess and mitigate terrorism risks in a systematic way using historical event data on urban plan level. Based on multiple event data, within a risk approach, quantities are derived that measure averaged susceptibilities, vulnerabilities and risks for buildings and infrastructure in the context of urban planning. The empirical approach allows for local scaling factors for frequency of events, e.g., due to physical accessibility, and for consequences, e.g., due to physical counter-measures. The paper discusses the input data necessary for statistically sound analyses, in particular, the accuracies of the quantities as well as deep uncertainties. To this end, it determines distributions for the frequencies and consequences, in particular, introducing a modified Pareto distribution. The application to a sample urban area demonstrates how the analysis results lead to a more resilient scenario using the analysis and selecting resilience improvement options. It is shown that the empirical analysis motivates more detailed additional engineeringsimulative approaches for resilience improvement through averaging susceptibility, vulnerability and risk assessments by assuming multiple spatially distributed events.

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Empirische Analyse sicherheitskritischer Ereignisse in urbanisierten Gebieten

Cited by 8 publications

References 12 publications

Morphology Dependent Assessment of Resilience for Urban Areas

Morphology Dependent Assessment of Resilience for Urban Areas

Empirical Susceptibility, Vulnerability and Risk Analysis for Resilience Enhancement of Urban Areas to Terrorist Events

Aussergewöhnliche dynamische Einwirkungen

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