Employing habitat suitability modeling to assess the distribution and envenomation potential of scorpion species in Iran

Abstract

Iran is a biodiversity hotspot of scorpions with 80 recorded species. Thus, scorpion envenomation is a serious public health problem in the country. Here, we used habitat suitability modeling to assess the spatial distribution of scorpions in Iran. Only 45 species had sufficient georeferenced data. We used bioclimatic variables, soil temperature layers, and 9 modeling algorithms to perform habitat suitability modeling. We employed an ensemble approach to obtain the final models. We calculated the richness map and drew distribution maps for genera with more than 1 species. Also, we assessed the scorpions’ species richness inside and outside of national parks. Finally, we created a risk map of encountering a venomous scorpion. The results showed that the highest scorpion richness is in the southern and southwestern parts of Iran, especially in the coastal areas of the Persian Gulf. We observed 3 biodiversity hotspots for scorpions that are located in the south and southwestern, central parts, and eastern parts of Iran. Except for northern parts, there is a possibility of encountering a venomous scorpion in other parts of Iran. The 3 biodiversity hotspots are also the areas with the highest chance of encountering a venomous species. We found that the hotspots are not protected and are located in areas facing land-use changes. Thus, hotspots have the highest human–scorpion conflicts. Our results provide new insight into the distribution of scorpion species in Iran. Conservation actions that ensure both human safety and species richness are essential and can be achieved by halting further land degradation in scorpion habitats and providing easy-to-understand manuals for local people.