Abstract:In this article we document the patterns of employment adjustment at the micro level. We find clear evidence of lumpy adjustment consistent with the presence of nonconvexities in the adjustment technology—inaction is pervasive, action spells are short-lived, and extreme adjustment episodes are responsible for a nontrivial share of employment adjustment. We also find that the probability of employment adjustment increases with the duration of inaction. The skill structure of the workforce, the type of employmen… Show more
“…Firms and individuals (workers and business owners) are identified and matched through a unique identification number, so they can be followed over time. Yearly data on business owners and paid employees 4 The Quadros de Pessoal database has been used in a diverse set of empirical works in labor and industry dynamics (e.g., Mata and Portugal 2002;Cabral andMata 2003 or Varejão andPortugal 2007).…”
“…Firms and individuals (workers and business owners) are identified and matched through a unique identification number, so they can be followed over time. Yearly data on business owners and paid employees 4 The Quadros de Pessoal database has been used in a diverse set of empirical works in labor and industry dynamics (e.g., Mata and Portugal 2002;Cabral andMata 2003 or Varejão andPortugal 2007).…”
“…In addition, Varejão and Portugal (2006) find that large employment adjustments (larger than 10% of the plant's labor force) account for about 66% of the total job turnover, and on average around 75% of all observed Portuguese employer do not change employment over an entire quarter.…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 94%
“…Varejão and Portugal (2006) estimated the Weibull duration model using survey data of Portuguese employers, and found the shape parameter is in the range between 1.174 to 1.309.…”
This paper aims to study the quantitative significance of lumpy labor adjustment as a propagation mechanism for business cycles. In the baseline model, I introduce lumpy job turnover in the spirit of Taylor (1980) and Calvo (1983) in a DSGE framework and find that it performs as same as the quadratic-adjustment-cost model at the aggregate level, but different at firm's level. In particular, It can capture lumpy labor adjustment at plant's level through the 'front-loading effect'. Then I implement the Weibull distribution in the same framework to incorporate the increasing hazards of the labor adjustment process, which is supported by the evidence from micro data. This extension represents a substantial improvement over benchmark models. It can replicate high volatility of employment, low volatile labor productivity and persistent dynamics in output. Based on these results, I conclude that intratemporal substitution between the two production factors and the aggregation mechanism play an important role in the propagation mechanism.JEL Classification: E32; E24 ; E22
“…Caballero et al (1997) report evidence of inactivity in plant-level adjustment: a large number of plants in the US choose not to adjust their employment, even when shortages are large. Similarly, Varejao and Portugal (2007) report that 75% of their large sample of Portuguese plants does not adjust employment from one quarter to the next. For an excellent survey of the employment adjustment literature up to the early nineties, the reader is prompted to Hamermesh and Pfann (1996).…”
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