Employment Instability and Fertility in Europe: A Meta-Analysis

Abstract

The relationship between employment instability and fertility is a major topic in demographic research, with a proliferation of published papers on this matter, especially since the Great Recession. Employment instability, which most often manifests in unemployment or time-limited employment, is usually deemed to have a negative effect on fertility, although different fertility reactions are hypothesized by sociological theories, and micro-level evidence is fragmented and contradictory. We used meta-analytic techniques to synthesize European research findings, offer general conclusions about the effects of employment instability on fertility (in terms of direction and size), and rank different sources of employment instability. Our results suggest that employment instability has a nonnegligible negative effect on fertility. Men's unemployment is more detrimental for fertility than men's time-limited employment; conversely, a woman having a fixed-term contract is least likely to have a child. Next, the negative effect of employment instability on fertility has become stronger over time, and is more severe in Southern European countries, where social protection for families and the unemployed is least generous. Finally, meta-regression estimates demonstrate that failing to account for income and partner characteristics leads to an overestimation of the negative effect of employment instability on fertility. We advance the role of these two factors as potential mechanisms by which employment instability affects fertility. Overall, this meta-analysis provides the empirical foundation for new studies on the topic.

Work and fertility in Taiwan: How women’s and men’s career sequences associate with fertility outcomes?

“…In conservative or familistic countries such as Germany, Italy, and Japan, findings for men generally support the theoretical predictions: stable employment, comparing to unstable employment, enhances men's fertility (Blossfeld and Mills, 2005;Hilgeman and Butts, 2009;Piotrowski et al, 2018;Raymo and Shibata, 2017). For women in conservative or familistic countries, stable employment has fertility-depressing effects when it is compared against unemployment (Matysiak andVignoli, 2008, 2013), while it has fertility-enhancing effects when it is compared against non-standard time-limited employment (Alderotti et al, 2021). However, most previous studies only investigate the cross-sectional employment-fertility relationship at a specific point of lifetime.…”

“…In a broader literature context beyond Asia, many studies in Europe have discussed how different forms of employment instability, which primarily manifests as being unemployed or non-standard employed, affect people's birth timing and quantum (Alderotti et al, 2021). Most researchers used event history models or discrete-time logit/probit regressions to examine whether the transition hazards or the likelihood of a specific birth differ across states of employment (Adsera, 2011b;Blossfeld and Mills, 2005;Kreyenfeld, 2010;Pailhé and Solaz, 2012;Piotrowski et al, 2018;Raymo and Shibata, 2017;Vignoli et al, 2016).…”

Couples' paid work, state-level unemployment, and first births in the United States

“…The theoretical complexity is reflected in the heterogeneity of the empirical findings (Alderotti et al 2021;Kreyenfeld and Andersson 2014). In Europe, some studies show that female (as much as male) unemployment is negatively associated with first births (Adsera 2005 (Kreyenfeld 2010 for Germany; Inanc 2015 for the women's growing desire for professional affirmation, self-actualization, and autonomy delays motherhood (Lesthaeghe and Van de Kaa 1986; Lesthaeghe 2020).…”

Union formation under conditions of uncertainty: The objective and subjective sides of employment uncertainty

“…Nonetheless, we reran Model 3 to include the level of disposable personal income from any source as a mediator (in quartiles; see Tables A-4-A-7). This stepwise approach has been recommended by recent studies of the nexus between employment stability and family formation (e.g., van Wijk, de Valk, and Leifbroer 2021), and highlighted in a meta-analysis summarizing European research findings in the realm of fertility research (Alderotti et al 2021). Among women, we observed a reduction in AME among those outside the labor force (from -0.064 to -0.047) and the unemployed (from -0.049 to -0.033).…”