Enabling a low-carbon electricity system for Southern Africa

Chowdhury, Abul Kashem; Deshmukh, Ranjit; Wu, Grace C.; Uppal, Anagha; Mileva, Ana; Curry, Tiana; Armstrong, Les; Galelli, Stefano; Ndhlukula, Kudakwashe

doi:10.1016/j.joule.2022.06.030

Cited by 22 publications

(27 citation statements)

References 40 publications

(53 reference statements)

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“…Although hydropower could still be competitive with solar PV until the end of this decade, the often-witnessed build time and cost overruns for hydropower projects ( 38 ) may even preclude large-scale hydropower expansion before that time, paving the way for further solar PV deployment. In addition, all capacity investments are expected to grow rapidly in the decades after 2030, thus further diminishing the role of hydropower in the future energy portfolio ( 39 ). Similarly, given the large expansion of the power system in the next few decades, the decline of hydropower is also substantial in the total capacity share (fig.…”

Section: Cost-effectiveness Of Solar Energy Avoids the Need For Long-...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Declining cost of renewables and climate change curb the need for African hydropower expansion

Carlino

Wildemeersch

Chawanda

et al. 2023

Science

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Across continental Africa, more than 300 new hydropower projects are under consideration to meet the future energy demand that is expected based on the growing population and increasing energy access. Yet large uncertainties associated with hydroclimatic and socioeconomic changes challenge hydropower planning. In this work, we show that only 40 to 68% of the candidate hydropower capacity in Africa is economically attractive. By analyzing the African energy systems’ development from 2020 to 2050 for different scenarios of energy demand, land-use change, and climate impacts on water availability, we find that wind and solar outcompete hydropower by 2030. An additional 1.8 to 4% increase in annual continental investment ensures reliability against future hydroclimatic variability. However, cooperation between countries is needed to overcome the divergent spatial distribution of investment costs and potential energy deficits.

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Section: Cost-effectiveness Of Solar Energy Avoids the Need For Long-...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Declining cost of renewables and climate change curb the need for African hydropower expansion

Carlino

Wildemeersch

Chawanda

et al. 2023

Science

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“…We used the GridPath model, an open-source power system model, to optimize the total investment and operation costs of electricity infrastructure (coal, natural gas, nuclear, hydropower, solar, wind, storage and transmission) in China from 2020 to 2040 [15,22,23]. We chose 2040 as our end-year because it is near enough to limit uncertainty in technology cost trajectories and far enough to develop meaningful pathways for policy-making.…”

Section: Electricity Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Regional disparities in health and employment outcomes of China’s transition to a low-carbon electricity system

Yang,

Luo,

et al. 2024

Environ. Res.: Energy

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Understanding the costs and the spatial distribution of health and employment outcomes of low-carbon electricity pathways is critical to enable an equitable transition. We integrate an electricity system planning model (GridPath), a health impact model (InMAP), and a multiregional input-output model to quantify China’s provincial-level impacts of electricity system decarbonization on costs, health outcomes, employment, and labor compensation. We find that even without specific CO2 constraints, declining renewable energy and storage costs enable a 26% decline in CO2 emissions in 2040 compared to 2020 under the Reference scenario. Compared to the Reference scenario, pursuing 2ºC and 1.5ºC compatible carbon emission targets (85% and 99% decrease in 2040 CO2 emissions relative to 2020 levels, respectively) reduces air pollution-related premature deaths from electricity generation over 2020-2040 by 51% and 63%, but substantially increases annual average costs per unit of electricity demand in 2040 (21% and 39%, respectively). While the 2ºC pathway leads to a 3% increase in electricity sector-related net labor compensation, the 1.5ºC pathway results in a 19% increase in labor compensation driven by greater renewable energy deployment. Although disparities in health impacts across provinces narrow as fossil fuels phase out, disparities in labor compensation widen with wealthier East Coast provinces gaining the most in labor compensation because of materials and equipment manufacturing, and offshore wind deployment.

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“…For example, Chowdhury et al. (2022) have reported leveraging RAT outputs to explore the development of low‐carbon electricity supply system for Southern Africa.…”

Section: A Vision Of Hopementioning

confidence: 99%

“…Investigating such potential win-win scenarios will require complementing SWOT data-driven tools like RAT that can reconstruct and predict reservoir impacts, with water management scenario assessment models such as WEAP (Water Evaluation, Analysis and Planning) or BASINS (Better Assessment Science Integrating Point and Non-point Sources). For example, Chowdhury et al (2022) have reported leveraging RAT outputs to explore the development of low-carbon electricity supply system for Southern Africa.…”

Section: A Vision Of Hopementioning

confidence: 99%

Restoring the Mesopotamian Rivers for Future Generations: A Practical Approach

Hossain

Alwash²,

Minocha

et al. 2023

Water Resources Research

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For over several thousand years, the sediment rich annual flood pulse traveling down the Tigris and Euphrates rivers have sustained the fertile crescent of Mesopotamia that we know today as home of the earliest human civilization (Breasted, 1916). This is where the world's first irrigated agricultural system was developed. It was perhaps in Mesopotamia that humans began living in organized settlements as they mastered the ability to grow enough food to reduce dependence on hunting and gathering.

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Enabling a low-carbon electricity system for Southern Africa

Cited by 22 publications

References 40 publications

Declining cost of renewables and climate change curb the need for African hydropower expansion

Declining cost of renewables and climate change curb the need for African hydropower expansion

Regional disparities in health and employment outcomes of China’s transition to a low-carbon electricity system

Restoring the Mesopotamian Rivers for Future Generations: A Practical Approach

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