Enabling a political tipping point for rapid decarbonisation in the United Kingdom

Abstract

Abstract. Decarbonisation of the global economy is an ecological and humanitarian necessity. Much of the research on this defining task for humanity has focused on technological solutions, with less attention paid to the question of how to accelerate the political and policy changes needed. Like a growing number of countries, the United Kingdom (UK) has opted for a net zero by 2050 decarbonisation plan, based on least cost optimisation and designed to depoliticise the climate issue. The research presented here argues for a more radical, science and equity based rapid decarbonisation to net zero by 2035. Using the emerging concept of positive tipping points, it asks how advocates of rapid decarbonisation could transform UK climate politics and achieve decisive policy influence. Based on a thematic analysis of 47 expert interviews and 100 expert views in total, this multidisciplinary research examines the political, sociological, and psychosocial dimensions and proposes an adapted multilevel perspective to illustrate the enabling conditions for a political tipping point. It finds that the potential exists for an effective advocacy coalition for rapid decarbonisation, but the prospects for displacing the dominant coalition look very slim. It recommends combining top-down and bottom-up approaches to create a nationally coordinated movement that is also place-based and participatory, putting the public at the forefront of systemic change.

Cross-system interactions for positive tipping cascades

“…In Europe and the US, for instance, public risk perception has resulted in green voting after extreme climate events (Hazlett and Mildenberger, 2020;Hoffmann et al, 2022), even though income and political identity play a strong mediating role. Therefore, society provides the political legitimacy and democratic mandate that policymakers need to support radical policy change (Willis, 2020;Smith, 2023).…”