End-to-end model of Icelandic waters using the Atlantis framework: Exploring system dynamics and model reliability

Sturludóttir, Erla; Desjardins, Christopher David; Elvarsson, Bjarki Þór; Fulton, Elizabeth A.; Gorton, Rebecca; Logemann, Kai; Stefansson, Gunnar

doi:10.1016/j.fishres.2018.05.026

Cited by 30 publications

(22 citation statements)

References 27 publications

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“…The Atlantis modelling framework Audzijonyte et al, 2017a, b) was used to construct an end-to-end model of Icelandic waters (Sturludottir et al, 2018). The modelled area is 1.6 million km 2 and has been divided into 51 spatial boxes and each box into vertical layers.…”

Section: Icelandic Waters Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Comparing the steady state results of a range of multispecies models between and across geographical areas by the use of the jacobian matrix of yield on fishing mortality rate

Pope¹,

Bartolino

Kulatska

et al. 2019

Fisheries Research

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A B S T R A C TLike other fisheries models, multispecies models are subject to various sources of error. However, with regard to their use for ecosystem-based fisheries management (EBFM) between model errors are likely to be most important. As multispecies models are by definition many-dimensional, comparing them is potentially a complex task. The paper uses a simple approach. This is to calculate the Jacobian matrix of long term steady state catch by species with respect to the fishing mortality relative to status quo levels on all species. This enables the comparison of the relative strength of species interactions among models both within and between regions. This Jacobian matrix approach to comparing multispecies models is applied to available models for the North Sea, the Baltic Sea and from Icelandic waters. Moreover, this information is used to provide the basis for estimating a multidimensional quadratic yield surface for each model in the near field. Used this way it is possible to compare different model estimations of fishing mortality rate changes needed to approach yield-related management goals. The results suggest considerable variation between models in their detailed results but more coherence in suggesting directions for changing fishing mortality rate. Thus the approach is of considerable importance in specifying the confidence with which it is possible to make multispecies predictions for EBFM.

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Section: Icelandic Waters Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Comparing the steady state results of a range of multispecies models between and across geographical areas by the use of the jacobian matrix of yield on fishing mortality rate

Pope¹,

Bartolino

Kulatska

et al. 2019

Fisheries Research

Self Cite

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“…Quantitative skill assessments have become popular as part of assessing the performance of Atlantis models (Sturludottir et al, 2018;Ortega-Cisneros, Cochrane & Fulton, 2017; Note: Number of species groups is the number of species groups that have been caught by each fishing fleet; total catch is the total tonnes caught by each fishing fleet from 1900 to 2014. Olsen et al, 2016).…”

Section: Skill Assessmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Reviewed as one of the best modelling frameworks for exploring 'what-if' type questions (Plagányi, 2007), it includes the ability to compare social, conservation, and economic outcomes. With sufficient data, this modelling approach can be extremely useful for management strategy evaluation (Plagányi, 2007), and has been applied to multiple marine systems (from single bays to millions of square kilometres) in Australia, the US, Europe, and South Africa (Savina et al, 2005;Fulton, Smith & Smith, 2007;Link, Fulton & Gamble, 2010;Ainsworth, Schirripa & Morzaria-Luna, 2015;Smith, Fulton & Day, 2015;Sturludottir et al, 2018;Ortega-Cisneros, Cochrane & Fulton, 2017). Atlantis is a deterministic simulation model such that for a given parameter set and model specification, the model outputs are identical.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

From data compilation to model validation: a comprehensive analysis of a full deep-sea ecosystem model of the Chatham Rise

McGregor

Horn

Fulton

et al. 2019

PeerJ

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The Chatham Rise is a highly productive deep-sea ecosystem that supports numerous substantial commercial fisheries, and is a likely candidate for an ecosystem based approach to fisheries management in New Zealand. We present the first end-to-end ecosystem model of the Chatham Rise, which is also to the best of our knowledge, the first end-to-end ecosystem model of any deep-sea ecosystem. We describe the process of data compilation through to model validation and analyse the importance of knowledge gaps with respect to model dynamics and results. The model produces very similar results to fisheries stock assessment models for key fisheries species, and the population dynamics and system interactions are realistic. Confidence intervals based on bootstrapping oceanographic variables are produced. The model components that have knowledge gaps and are most likely to influence model results were oceanographic variables, and the aggregate species groups ‘seabird’ and ‘cetacean other’. We recommend applications of the model, such as forecasting biomasses under various fishing regimes, include alternatives that vary these components.

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“…Quantitative skill assessments have become popular as part of assessing the performance of Atlantis models (Sturludottir et al, 2018;Ortega-Cisneros et al, 2017;Olsen et al, 2016). A quantitative skill assessment was carried out, comparing model biomass estimates with those from trawl surveys where available (O'Driscoll et al, 2011;Stevens et al, 2017).…”

Section: Skill Assessmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Reviewed as one of the best modelling frameworks for exploring 'what-if' type questions (Plagányi, 2007), it includes the ability to compare social, conservation, and economic outcomes. With sufficient data, this modelling approach can be extremely useful for management strategy evaluation (Plagányi, 2007), and has been applied to multiple marine systems (from single bays to millions of square kilometres) in Australia, the United States, Europe, and South Africa (Savina et al (2005), Fulton et al (2007), Link et al (2010), Ainsworth et al (2015), Smith et al (2015), Sturludottir et al (2018), Ortega-Cisneros et al (2017)). Atlantis is a deterministic simulation model such that for a given parameter set and model specification, the model outputs are identical.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Peer Review #1 of "From data compilation to model validation: a comprehensive analysis of a full deep-sea ecosystem model of the Chatham Rise (v0.1)"

2019

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The Chatham Rise is a highly productive deep-sea ecosystem that supports numerous substantial commercial fisheries, and is a likely candidate for an ecosystem based approach to fisheries management in New Zealand. We present the first end-to-end ecosystem model of the Chatham Rise, which is also to be best of our knowledge, the first end-to-end ecosystem model of any deep-sea ecosystem. We describe the process of data compilation through to model validation and analyse the importance of knowledge gaps with respect to model dynamics and results. The model produces very similar results to fisheries stock assessment models for key fisheries species, and the population dynamics and system interactions are realistic. Confidence intervals based on bootstrapping oceanographic variables are produced. The model components that have knowledge gaps and are most likely to influence model results were oceanographic variables, and the aggregate species groups 'seabird' and 'cetacean other'. We recommend applications of the model, such as forecasting biomasses under various fishing regimes, include alternatives that vary these components. 'seabird' and 'cetacean other'. We recommend applications of the model, such as forecasting biomasses under various fishing regimes, include alternatives that vary these components.

show abstract

End-to-end model of Icelandic waters using the Atlantis framework: Exploring system dynamics and model reliability

Cited by 30 publications

References 27 publications

Comparing the steady state results of a range of multispecies models between and across geographical areas by the use of the jacobian matrix of yield on fishing mortality rate

Comparing the steady state results of a range of multispecies models between and across geographical areas by the use of the jacobian matrix of yield on fishing mortality rate

From data compilation to model validation: a comprehensive analysis of a full deep-sea ecosystem model of the Chatham Rise

Peer Review #1 of "From data compilation to model validation: a comprehensive analysis of a full deep-sea ecosystem model of the Chatham Rise (v0.1)"

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