Endogenous Democratization

Abstract

The authors show that economic development increases the probability that a country will undergo a transition to democracy. These results contradict the finding of Przeworski and his associates, that development causes democracy to last but not to come into existence in the first place. By dealing adequately with problems of sample selection and model specification, the authors discover that economic growth does cause nondemocracies to democratize. They show that the effect of economic development on the probability of a transition to democracy in the hundred years between the mid-nineteenth century and World War II was substantial, indeed, even stronger than its effect on democratic stability. They also show that, in more recent decades, some countries that developed but remained dictatorships would, because of their development, be expected to democratize in as few as three years after achieving a per capita income of $12,000 per capita.

Institutional Transformations, Polity and Economic Outcomes: Testing the North-Wallis-Weingast Doorsteps Framework

“…Since then, many authors have probed this relationship. Without being exhaustive, these include Jackman (1973), Barro (1996 and1999), Przeworski et al (2000), Boix andStokes (2003), Feng (2004), and Acemoglu et al (2007). The overarching conclusion from this work is that the relationship between both is weak.…”

Voting Counts: Participation in the Measurement of Democracy

“…His "exogenous" account contends that democracy arises as frequently in poor countries as in rich ones, but that "once established, democracies are likely to die in poor countries and certain to survive in wealthy ones" Przeworski and Limongi (1997:167). This rejection of the endogenous explanation is itself refuted conceptually, theoretically, and empirically by Boix and Stokes (2003) and Hadenius and Teorell (2005). Despite these different explanations, all accept as valid the strong relationship between democracy and development.…”

Missing the Third Wave: Islam, Institutions, and Democracy in the Middle East

“…Michael Ross, (2001 tested this argument most systematically, finding empirical evidence that a negative relationship between oil wealth and democracy holds not only in the MENA, but in other regions as well. Similar arguments, centered on asset mobility, would expect that incumbent elites would be particularly resistant to democratization (Acemoglu and Robinson 2006;Boix and Stokes 2003).…”

“…From classical modernization arguments (Lipset 1959) to more recent reformulations (Przeworski et al 2000) and rebuttals (Boix and Stokes 2003), scholars argue that the level of economic development and the rate of growth should influence the prospects for political reform. These factors should affect both the ability of citizens to make demands and their desire to do so; and yet, while they may be important, they are not fully satisfactory.…”