Background and study aims: Caustic ingestion is a potentially severe condition; early identification of poor outcome is essential for improve management, but prediction based only on endoscopy can overestimate its severity. The aim of the study was to develop and validate a prognostic score.
Patients and methods: A prospective cohort study was designed to include all patients older than 15 years consecutively attended in our tertiary care hospital between 1995 and 2017. Adverse outcome was defined by any of the following conditions: intensive care unit admission, urgent surgery or death. The predictive value of clinical, analytical and endoscopic variables was assessed in a first cohort of cases (derivation cohort) and a prognostic score based on the resulting risk factors was developed by logistic regression; internal validation (bootstrapping) was performed and then external validation was checked in an independent sample of patients (validation cohort).
Results: 469 cases were included, 265 in the derivation cohort and 204 in the validation one. Ingestion of acid substances (OR 3.13, 95%CI:2.33-4.21), neutrophil count (OR 1.05, 95%CI:1.04-1.06), metabolic acidosis (bicarbonate value, OR 0.82, 95%CI:0.78-0.85) and endoscopic injury (OR 3.81, 95%CI:3.35-4.34) were independent risk factors of poor outcome. The prognostic score based on these variables provided better accuracy than endoscopy alone (p=0.038), with high sensitivity, specificity, positive, negative predictive values (93.3%, 92.7%, 72.7%, 98.5%, respectively) and area under the curve (0.976, 95%CI:0.973-0.976, p<0.001).
Conclusions: This score allows a reliable prognosis of caustic ingestion and is more accurate than the classical evaluation based only on endoscopy.