Energy and carbon intensity: A study on the cross-country industrial shift from China to India and SE Asia

Abstract

Highlights• Emissions intensity higher in India and SE Asia countries compared to China.• India's emissions intensity triple that of China in non-metallic minerals industry.• India's emissions intensity double that of China in iron and steel industry.• Indonesia's emissions intensity double that of China in non-metallic minerals sector.• Paris Agreement INDC commitments to be challenged by industrial relocation. Abstract 1The potential relocation of various industrial sectors from China to India and countries of the SE Asian region presents low cost opportunities for manufacturers, but also risks rising for energy demand and CO2 emissions. A cross-country shift of industrial output would present challenges for controlling emissions since India and SE Asian countries present higher industrial emissions intensity than China. We find that although there is a convergence in emissions intensity in the machinery manufacturing and paper and pulp industries, there are significant variations in all other industrial sectors. Indian emissions intensity is double that of China in the iron and steel and textile and leather industries and almost triple in the cement industry; Indonesian emissions intensity is almost double that of China in the non-metallic minerals and textile and leather industries and 50% higher in the chemical and petrochemical industry. We demonstrate that the expected higher emissions are driven by both a higher carbon fuel mix intensity in the recipient countries 1 and higher energy intensity in their industrial activities. While industrial relocation could benefit certain countries financially, it would impose considerable threats to their energy supply security and capacity to comply with their Paris Agreement commitments.

Imbalance and drivers of carbon emissions embodied in trade along the Belt and Road Initiative

“…It implies that some production activities, particularly those conducted by carbon-intensive sectors, were likely to be relocated from China to other developing countries in the BRI. This is in keeping with recent studies reporting emission shifts among developing nations [6,47].…”

“…Obviously, PBA on its own cannot fairly identify national responsibilities, especially for BRI nations, and CBA in principle seems to be both feasible and effective [46]. The improvement in carbon intensities and energy efficiencies, varied among these nations over time [47], which however could not be assessed through PBA or CBA, but rather through TCBA. For nations that have a higher carbon footprint under TCBA than CBA, it makes sense to take immediate actions to reduce carbon intensities to reach the world average.…”

“…For nations that have a higher carbon footprint under TCBA than CBA, it makes sense to take immediate actions to reduce carbon intensities to reach the world average. Among them, China showed a stable trend of reducing carbon intensity [47]. Its domestic carbon intensity was improved at a speed faster than the world average, leading to a slower growth rate of carbon footprint with TCBA than that with CBA.…”

Clustering Analysis of Energy Consumption in the Countries of the Visegrad Group

“…Countries often specialize in sectors where they do not have a comparative advantage in energy efficiency. Such patterns were also found by Pappas et al [50] in the case of a comparison between China, India, and the countries of South Asia. The use of energy in equivalent sectors in China was even several times better than in India.…”

Study on the industrial structure optimization under constraint of energy intensity

“…10 On the other hand, energy consumption is the main cause of carbon emissions, and increased carbon emissions will aggravate air pollution. 11–16…”