Energy, conflict and war: Towards a conceptual framework

Abstract

It is widely recognised that the presence of some fossil fuels and their transport routes can affect the risk of conflicts. Other parts of the energy system and contextual conditions (social, economic or political factors) also matter for such conflicts, but which and how is not as well researched. This paper develops a framework that links characteristics of energy systems with contextual conditions that if combined increases the risk of conflict. The framework also provides a brief theoretical background as well as examples of previous energy conflicts. Examples of energy system characteristic that can affect the risk of conflicts include geographical concentration of primary resources, the number and diversity of exporters on the international energy market, vulnerability of infrastructure to attacks, vulnerability of users to disruptions and externalities related to interconnections with other systems. Contextual conditions include, among other, the rationale of actors to engage in conflict under various circumstances. The capacity of humans and societies to adapt to change should be analysed together with the characteristics of the energy system that place stress on actors. The framework can serve as a tool to identify 'hotspots' and, develop more robust energy policies and strategies to anticipate and prevent conflicts.

Fossil Fuel Rents: Who Initiates International Crises?

“…This study builds on the idea that market incentives matter (Månsson, 2014) by systematically analyzing whether fossil fuel exporters 1 tend to engage more often in international crises. I extend the framework developed by Colgan (2013) within the framework of "producer politics".…”

Analysis of conventional energy supply resource diversity

“…Recently, Japan is seeking to energy diversity from more than 10 countries, including Middle Eastern (Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Kuwait and Iran) Russian, Southeastern Asia (Vietnam, Indonesia and Malaysia) and West African (Gabon and Angola) [1]. China, as the second importer of oil, also imported oil from multiple countries, including Saudi Arabia (19.11%), Afghanistan (14.19%), The Sultanate of Oman (8.80%), Russian (8.67%), Iran (8.12%), Iraq (7.97%), República Bolivariana de Venezuela (5.72%), Kazakhstan Actually, regions with rich oil are full of armed conflicts in recent years [3]. For example, Middle Eastern owns most of the world's oil reserves and is always in armed conflicts.…”

A resource curse for renewables? Conflict and cooperation in the renewable energy sector

“…Energy resources and supply chains are reported to increase the risk of conflicts through a variety of relationships [1]. For example, power struggles can arise when actors disagree on who should control and access globally scarce but locally abundant resources.…”

“…Another perspective, not commonly adopted for renewable energy, is to frame the energy system as a security subject. 1 In the security subject perspective the energy system can enhance insecurity, e.g. exacerbate conflicts, or enable security, e.g.…”

“…Using a previously described framework [1], this study analysed three relationships. First, when the energy system is an objective in the conflict, this group includes geopolitically and economically motivated conflicts in which the conflicting parties have diverging opinions on who should access energy resources and/or control the energy system [26,27].…”