Energy Planning of Renewable Energy Sources in an Italian Context: Energy Forecasting Analysis of Photovoltaic Systems in the Residential Sector

Abstract

Solar photovoltaic systems will play a key role in the country’s energy mix thanks to their ability to meet increasing energy needs while reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Despite the potential of solar photovoltaic energy, several criticalities remain, such as the intermittent nature and the need for significant land use for its implementation. In this regard, this work aimed at evaluating the photovoltaic potentiality in a national context by 2030 and 2050, considering only installations on the roof surfaces of existing buildings, i.e., without consuming additional land. This study has allowed the answering of three key points: (i) the roof surface could represent a valuable and alternative solution for new installations, since it could amount to around 450 km2, (ii) the national target cannot be reached by only using installations on existing buildings, although some regions could get close to the target by 2050, and (iii) long-term energy incentives should be implemented branching out to each national region, considering their photovoltaic potential. Finally, a regional potential index was also defined, capable of evaluating the photovoltaic potential in each region, helping policymakers to adopt the most suitable energy strategies.

Diffusion of Solar PV Energy in Italy: Can Large-Scale PV Installations Trigger the Next Growth Phase?

“…Indeed, the present analysis, based on diffusion models and disaggregating small-and large-scale PV adoptions, suggests a more controversial type of behavior. On the one hand, the fast decline of small-scale adoptions with the end of the post-COVID-19 incentive programs, despite the huge room still available for further investment [56], seems to confirm the "addiction to incentive" issue [25]. On the other hand, large-scale adoptions are showing, for the first time, symptoms of exponential growth that are consistent with the fact that this segment has achieved an autonomous growth path.…”

Strategic Model for Charging a Fleet of Electric Vehicles with Energy from Renewable Energy Sources

“…It is worth emphasizing, however, that energy from PV systems constitutes only part of the energy needed to charge vehicle batteries. Some of it must be taken from the power grid, and regardless of its source (RES or coal), it will usually be much more expensive than that produced by your own RES source [13]. Therefore, the task of the energy manager in a company with a fleet of electric vehicles will be to appropriately select the peak power of the photovoltaic system for the fleet of vehicles owned or planned to be purchased.…”

“…Every year, more electric vehicles appear on the streets, powered by electricity from a traction battery on board the vehicle [4][5][6][7][8]. The second trend is the generation of electricity from renewable energy sources (RES) [9][10][11][12][13]. Each of these trends was clearly visible in 2023 and a strong growth trend is observed in each of them for the following years.…”