Energy Policy Scenarios for Carbon Emissions in Road Passenger Transport in Austria up to 2050

Abstract

The transport sector currently contributes to about 25% of total CO2-emissions in the EU as well as in Austria. The largest share is caused by individual passenger car transport, primarily powered by fossil fuels. It is imperative to replace conventional cars with sustainable alternative technologies and explore alternative modes of transportation, all while reducing the overall vehicle kilometres driven. To meet climate targets, the implementation of effective policies is crucial, and phasing out fossil fuel vehicles is an inevitable step. The core objective of this study is to analyze which policy strategies in road passenger transport in Austria up to 2050 lead to a significant reduction in CO2-emissions. To do so, four scenarios for energy consumption and CO2-emissions, are derived and modelled: a Business-as-Usual Scenario, a Phase-Out-Scenario of fossil fuels, a Tax-Scenario and a Green-Policy-Scenario. Of specific relevance is that our approach is considering flow and embedded CO2-emissions. The major driving factors considered encompass income, vehicle kilometres driven, vehicle power, fuel intensity, and specific CO2-emission factors. The BAU-Scenario continues current policy trends without major changes. The Phase-Out- Scenario looks at gradually stopping the use of fossil fuel vehicles. The Tax-Scenario uses higher financial measures to reduce the use of high-emission vehicles. The Green-Policy-Scenario combines various strategies to encourage public transport and active mobility and improve vehicle efficiency. The major conclusions are: (i) The total vehicle kilometres travelled and overall vehicle stock must be reduced. (ii) Focusing on BEVs is not sufficient; a modal shift towards public transport and active mobility is important. (iii) Public transport and active mobility need to be made more attractive options. These steps will help reduce emissions and create more sustainable urban environments.