ENERGY PRICE‐ and INCOME‐ELASTICITIES OF DEMAND: SOME ESTIMATES FOR THE UK USING THE COINTEGRATION PROCEDURE

Hunt, Lester C.; Manning, Neil

doi:10.1111/j.1467-9485.1989.tb01085.x

Cited by 39 publications

(27 citation statements)

References 13 publications

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“…Following the testing down procedure outlined above the preferred equation is given by: Where μ t = -15.257 with a slope of -0.0081 at the end of the period. 24 The idea that there is a two year delay in the response of electricity consumption to a change in real electricity prices (as suggested by the estimated equation) is arguably unlikely; despite this result being statistically acceptable. Nevertheless, it is maintained given the prime reason for the estimated equation is to undertake medium to long term forecasts and scenarios, so that the implicit long-run elasticity is the key parameter, not the short run adjustment.…”

Section: Structural Time Series Model Methods (Stsm)mentioning

confidence: 96%

“…However, this is not unknown in previous estimates: for example Hunt & Manning (1989) [24] found a similar relationship for the UK aggregate energy demand arguing that this could arise from the inflexibility of the energy-using capital and appliance stock of firms and households so that an increase in income results in an immediate increase in the derived demand for energy in the short-run, but this derived demand reduces in the longer term as more energy efficient machines are installed. This might therefore be the case of the electricity using appliances in Sri Lanka and the efficiency improvement and energy saving programmes implemented over the past years by CEB and other energy sector organisations.…”

Section: Comparison Of Long Run Elasticity Estimatesmentioning

confidence: 91%

“…The peak load is calculated by using actual loss levels for 2002 and 2003 and thereafter loss levels as predicted by LTGEP (Long Term Generation Expansion Plan), 2004, CEB [24] and a system LF (Load Factor) of 55%. 31 In addition Table A1 and Table A2 very similar to those given here using the six methods up to 2018 but thereafter the CEB forecasts are notably higher.…”

Section: Forecastsmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Electricity demand for Sri Lanka: A time series analysis

Amarawickrama

Hunt

2008

Energy

181

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Section: Structural Time Series Model Methods (Stsm)mentioning

confidence: 96%

Section: Comparison Of Long Run Elasticity Estimatesmentioning

confidence: 91%

Section: Forecastsmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Electricity demand for Sri Lanka: A time series analysis

Amarawickrama

Hunt

2008

Energy

181

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“…Actually, this is also the basic reason for the use of cointegration technique in this study. The papers written in this area include that of Engle et al (1989); Hunt and Manning (1989), Hunt and Lynk (1992), Engsted (1993, 2001), Fouquet et al (1993), Hunt and Witt (1995); and Beenstock and Goldin (1999).…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Electricity demand analysis using cointegration and ARIMA modelling: A case study of Turkey

2007

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In the early 2000s, the Republic of Turkey has initiated an ambitious reform program in her electricity market, which requires privatization, liberalization as well as a radical restructuring. The most controversial reason behind, or justification for, recent reforms has been the rapid electricity demand growth; that is to say, the whole reform process has been a part of the endeavors to avoid so-called "energy crisis". Using cointegration analysis and ARIMA modeling, the present article focuses on this issue by both providing an electricity demand estimation and forecast, and comparing the results with official projections. The study concludes, first, that consumers' respond to price and income changes is quite limited and therefore there is a need for * Corresponding author. Tel.: +90-312-2872560 E-mail: erkan@erdogdu.net URL: http://erkan.erdogdu.net/english b The author is working as an Energy Expert in Energy Market Regulatory Authority of the Republic of Turkey. The present article is a part of the dissertation submitted by the author in fulfillment of the requirements for the award of the degree "MSc in Energy Economics and Policy". In October 2005, the author is awarded an "MSc with distinction" by the Department of Economics, University of Surrey (UK). The views, findings and conclusions expressed in this article are entirely those of the author and do not represent in any way the views of any institution he is affiliated with. 2 economic regulation in Turkish electricity market; and second, that the current official electricity demand projections highly overestimate the electricity demand, which may endanger the development of both a coherent energy policy in general and a healthy electricity market in particular.

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“…22 A few examples include Hunt and Manning (1989), Bentzen and Engsted (1993), Al-Muriati and Eltony (1996), Fouquet et al (1997), Pesaran et al (1998, Hunt and Nonomiya (200%), Crompton and Wu (2005), etc. 23 Hunt and Manning (1989) analyzed the aggregate energy demand in the UK. Pesaran et al (1998) was a major study that analyzed energy demand in 11 Asian developing countries using Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model to co-integration both at the aggregate and sector levels.…”

Section: Box 8: Typical Examples Of Single Equation Econometric Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Energy Demand Models For Policy Formulation: A Comparative Study Of Energy Demand Models

Bhattacharyya¹,

Timilsina²

2009

Policy Research Working Papers

127

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This paper critically reviews existing energy demand forecasting methodologies highlighting the methodological diversities and developments over the past four decades in order to investigate whether the existing energy demand models are appropriate for capturing the specific features of developing countries. The study finds that two types of approaches, econometric and end-use accounting, are used in the existing energy demand models. Although energy demand models have greatly evolved since the early 1970s, key issues such as the poor-rich and urban-rural divides, traditional energy resources, and differentiation between commercial and non-commercial energy This paper-a product of the Environment and Energy Team, Development Research Group-is part of a larger effort in the department to study climate change and clean energy issues. Policy Research Working Papers are also posted on the Web at http://econ.worldbank.org. The author may be contacted at gtimilsina@worldbank.org.commodities are often poorly reflected in these models. While the end-use energy accounting models with detailed sector representations produce more realistic projections compared with the econometric models, they still suffer from huge data deficiencies especially in developing countries. Development and maintenance of more detailed energy databases, further development of models to better reflect developing country context, and institutionalizing the modeling capacity in developing countries are the key requirements for energy demand modeling to deliver richer and more reliable input to policy formulation in developing countries. Energy Demand Models for Acronyms and Definitions DefinitionsA few terms appear recurrently in this report: tool, model, method, methodology, approach and framework. We give the dictionary meaning of these terms and indicate how we have used them in this paper.A "tool" is "the means whereby some act is accomplished" or "an implement used in the practice of a vocation". In this paper, we use the term to imply an implement or a kit that is used in analyzing energy demand or forecasting demand or in analyzing the energy system in its part or whole.A "model" is defined as "a simplified description of a complex entity or process". In this paper, we use models to imply a simplified representation of a complex problem or process, often in mathematical terms, that helps us in conceptualizing and analyzing the problem. In this sense, a model can be a tool or can employ a number of tools in a systematic way.A "framework" is defined as "a structure supporting or containing something" or "a simplified description of a complex entity or process". In this paper, we have used this term interchangeably with a model.A "method" is defined as "a way of doing something, especially a systematic way; implies an orderly logical arrangement (usually in steps)". We have used the term to mean a logical, systematic approach for accomplishing a task.An "approach" is defined as the "ideas or actions intended to deal with a problem or situatio...

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ENERGY PRICE‐ and INCOME‐ELASTICITIES OF DEMAND: SOME ESTIMATES FOR THE UK USING THE COINTEGRATION PROCEDURE

Cited by 39 publications

References 13 publications

Electricity demand for Sri Lanka: A time series analysis

Electricity demand for Sri Lanka: A time series analysis

Electricity demand analysis using cointegration and ARIMA modelling: A case study of Turkey

Energy Demand Models For Policy Formulation: A Comparative Study Of Energy Demand Models

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