Energy Reference Forecast and Energy Policy Targets for Germany

Abstract

Based on international studies and a market forecast of probable energy industry development a reference scenario up to the year 2030 has been developed for Germany, complemented by a trend scenario extending out to the year 2050. Because most of the targets of the German energy concept will not (fully) be achieved in the reference and trend scenario, an additional target scenario is developed.

Comparison methods of energy system frameworks, models and scenario results

“…Misconel et al [30] compare three frameworks, ELTRAMOD [45], PowerACE [46], IDILES-JMM [47,48], applying them on the German power sector and using a quantitative approach for the outcomes comparison based on the direct comparison of the following indicators: generation and demand, installed capacities of generation sources, installed capacities of storage and transmission units, hourly generation and storage profiles, and CO 2 emissions. Ruhnau et al [49] compare five electricity market models: PowerFlex [50], the Joint market model [51], SCOPE [52,53], EMMA [54] and the DIMENSION model [55]. The authors use a quantitative approach based on direct comparison of the following indicators: costs, generation and demand, CO 2 emissions.…”