Energy Resources and Potentials

Abstract

Energy is central to addressing major challenges of the 21st Century, challenges like climate change, economic and social development, human well-being, sustainable development, and global security. In 2005, Prof. Bert Bolin, the founding Chair of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), with other eminent scientists and policy-makers, identified that a comprehensive, science-based assessment of the global energy system was needed if these challenges were to be realistically addressed. The Global Energy Assessment (GEA) is the result of this shared vision. Since the establishment of the GEA in 2006 by governing Council of the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), 500 independent experts (about 300 authors and 200 anonymous reviewers) from academia, business, government, intergovernmental and non-governmental organizations from all the regions of the world have contributed to GEA in a process similar to that adopted by the IPCC. The final GEA report examines: (a) the major global challenges and their linkages to energy; (b) the technologies and resources available for providing adequate, modern and affordable forms of energy; (c) the plausible structure of future energy systems most suited to addressing the century's challenges; and (d) the policies and measures, institutions and capacities needed to realize sustainable energy futures. Undertaking such a massive assessment has required extraordinary leadership, intellectual input, support and coordination. Governance of the Assessment has been overseen by the GEA Council, led by two Co-Presidents, Ged Davis and Jos é Goldemberg and comprising members of supporters and sponsors of the GEA, including international organizations, government agencies, corporations, and foundations and non-governmental organizations. Convening Lead Authors (CLAs) coordinated the 25 Chapters and the contributions of Lead and Contributing Authors. The GEA Executive Committee, led by two Co-Chairs, Thomas B. Johansson and Anand Patwardhan includes all CLAs. Review Editors were appointed by the GEA Council for each Chapter. They in turn appointed anonymous reviewers and guided the rigorous peer-review process. Completion of GEA has involved dedication and sustained contributions from many colleagues around the world. Our thanks and gratitude go to: Leen Hordijk, the IIASA Director who initiated GEA at IIASA; Sten Nilsson, IIASA Acting Director and Deputy Director; and Detlof von Winterfeldt, the IIASA Director who provided personal and institutional support throughout. The resources and the encouragement they provided helped make GEA a reality. The GEA Organizing Committee and the GEA Council provided wise counsel and guidance throughout. Additionally the GEA Council solicited financial and in-kind resources without which GEA would not have been possible. We are especially grateful for the contribution and support of the GEA Council, the Executive Committee, the Organizing Committee, the Secretariat, as well as the IIASA Council and management. As host ...

From Boom to Bust? A Critical Look at US Shale Gas Projections

“…However, due to the specific characteristics of shale formations, large-scale production has only recently become technically and economically possible. Shale, a sedimentary rock, mainly contains natural gas in pores that are poorly connected (Rogner et al, 2012). The low permeability due to insufficient natural fractures does not allow an easy extraction with conventional techniques.…”

From Boom to Bust? A Critical Look at US Shale Gas Projections

“…3 In addition to shale gas, tight gas and coalbed methane (CBM) are generally classified as unconventional natural gas. See Rogner et al (2012) for a concise definition. Shale gas production is not a new phenomenon, as it started as early as 1821 (MIT, 2011).…”

ENERGY SECURITY OF CHINA, INDIA, THE E.U. AND THE U.S. UNDER LONG-TERM SCENARIOS: RESULTS FROM SIX IAMs

“…Note: Global trade for the year 2010 is taken from MESSAGE since this model trades the most fuels and carriers which are relevant to current data. Table 4 shows the global cumulative extraction of fossil fuels in the 21 st century compared to the reserves and resource (R&R) as estimated in the Global Energy Assessment (Rogner et al, 2012). The R&R estimates in the Global Energy Assessment are compiled from the main organizations which publish such data (British Petroleum, the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers, the International Energy Agency, the German Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources (BGR), and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the World Energy Council) as well as key academic papers on the topic.…”

“…However, the emissions of natural gas technologies (even with CCS) are too high to support the 450 scenario in this model and therefore the cumulative gas extraction is relatively lower as compared to the StrPol scenario. (Rogner et al, 2012). Models have their own resource availability and cost curves which are synthesized in Table 11 in the Supplementary material.…”