Energy scenarios for the Minas Gerais State in Brazil: an integrated modeling exercise using System Dynamics

Abstract

Background: Developing medium-to long-term energy scenarios is a key to achieve goals of energy security and greenhouse gas emission reduction through the implementation of effective public policies. Methods: Despite the availability of many tools and methods that focus on energy planning from an engineering perspective, only a few approaches have the methodological capabilities to build energy scenarios and quantify their impacts across social and environment indicators in a dynamic and flexible way. To fill this gap, we have created a System Dynamics model customized for the state of Minas Gerais in Brazil to simulate possible trajectories of energy demand and supply. Results: Two scenarios were developed: a business-as-usual case (BAU), with no major changes in the energy profile of the state; the other is an alternative scenario, where the reduction of carbon intensity (RIC) is a key goal. To summarize the results, the scenario RIC has lower greenhouse gas emissions and greater energy generation and employment, but has a total cumulative cost higher than BAU as the final indicators estimated. Conclusions: We can see important opportunities to contribute to global climate change mitigation while fostering a low-carbon energy sector and a green economy in the state. By investing in the renewable energy sources, energy efficiency, technological improvements, and the targets analyzed in this study, Minas Gerais State could reduce political and financial risks originating from the reliance on fossil fuels while generating more income in the energy sector and the state economy as a whole and reducing medium-and longer-term costs.

A systematic review of system dynamics and agent‐based obesity models: Evaluating obesity as part of the global syndemic

“…Further, among existing system dynamics models of climate change, many include food systems‐related components, which could be used to link mechanisms of climate change to those that produce undernutrition and obesity outcomes. Often these models include agricultural water demand or use, crop yield and production, agriculture‐related income or profit, land use, agricultural energy demand or use, or livestock population dynamics . Notably, two studies include food consumption broadly, and another two include consumption disaggregated by types of food, allowing for the possibility of linking dietary patterns to climate change, undernutrition, and/or obesity in the latter.…”

“…The model developed by Liu et al 48 could be expanded to disaggregate new physical activity space construction by whether the built environment is changed in a way (eg, facilitates active transport opportunities) that mitigates greenhouse gas emissions.Further, among existing system dynamics models of climate change, many include food systems-related components, which could be used to link mechanisms of climate change to those that produce undernutrition and obesity outcomes. Often these models include agricultural water demand or use,[57][58][59][60][61][62][63][64][65][66][67][68][69][70][71][72] crop yield and production, 62,65,73-80 agriculture-related income or profit,57,58,65,77,81 land use,73,74,76,82,83 agricultural energy demand or use,80,[84][85][86] or livestock population dynamics 57,58,81. Notably, two studies include food…”