Energy Sector Development: System Dynamics Analysis

Laimon, Mohamd; Mai, Thanh; Goh, Steven; Yusaf, Talal

doi:10.3390/app10010134

Cited by 31 publications

(19 citation statements)

References 22 publications

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“…These diagrams are good at communicating the important feedback that is responsible for the complex problem in focus [20]. Feedback loops representing interactions among the parts of a system rather than the number of the parts enables better understanding of complex systems [25]. Parameters (there are around 150 parameters in the prototype model) shaping the structure and behavior of each baseline requirement have been defined (with an endogenous focus) via NATO's resilience evaluation criteria matrix that is used to evaluate the NATO countries' resilience level.…”

Section: Causality and Behavioural Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Dynamic Modeling for Resilience Measurement: NATO Resilience Decision Support Model

Hodicky¹,

Özkan²,

Özdemir³

et al. 2020

Applied Sciences

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Despite its conceptual uncertainty, resilience is mostly about the measurement of capacity. Current studies confirm the importance of resilience measurement and the necessity to support policy makers with a measurement mechanism. A holistic approach considering the measurement of different resilience domains interactively and concurrently is the critical element in this endeavor. In parallel with the rise of popularity of resilience in international organizations, NATO has initiated a project with the objective to discover whether the resilience capacity of a country can be evaluated in a dynamic way via a prototype model execution. The implemented model running both baseline (without any shock) and extraordinary scenarios (with strategic shocks), clearly demonstrates its capacity to represent quantitatively the resilience related factors of a country in the complex operational environment. Moreover, the outputs of the model substantially comply with the resilience concept existing in the literature and NATO applications. One of the main strengths of the model is its almost infinite capacity to create various scenarios and make what-if analysis limited only by the current number of endogenous parameters of the model. It allows studying the secondary and the third order effects of events introduced in scenarios. The user interfaces (input and output dashboards) of the model help decision makers modify the values of selected endogenous parameters, see and compare the time-based values of the resilience factors, and doing so to evaluate risk related to the Area of Operations. Subject matter experts have validated the model and identified the main areas of improvement. The further development brings more countries to the model and implements an aggregation mechanism for output values of both resilience capacity and risk functions. The model will form the core of the NATO Resilience expert system.

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Section: Causality and Behavioural Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Dynamic Modeling for Resilience Measurement: NATO Resilience Decision Support Model

Hodicky¹,

Özkan²,

Özdemir³

et al. 2020

Applied Sciences

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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“…The main problem with the use of granular mixed fuels in small-or large-scale power engineering, the solution for which is necessary when developing technologies for burning such fuels, is that, as established by the results of research [22], the ignition delay times of droplets and particles of any liquid [23,24], solid [25,26], or slurry [27,28] fuels significantly depend on the size of the particles (or droplets) [29]. The larger the size of these particles, the longer the ignition delay time, respectively [30].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The cold pressing method eliminates energy costs for pre-drying fuel mixture samples, heating them, or additional sintering at relatively low temperatures. Mixed fuel samples were placed in a matrix with a through hole 8 mm in diameter and a thrust cup fixed at the base [24]. Pressing was performed by a punch of the corresponding diameter fixed on the hydraulic mechanism of the press with a force of 2 metric tons.…”

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confidence: 99%

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Justification of the Energy Use of Cedar Husk Waste as an Environmentally Friendly Additive for Co-Combustion with Coal

et al. 2021

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In this paper, the properties of ignition of mixed fuel pellets formed on the basis of fairly typical energy coal and wood industry waste in the form of cedar husks are experimentally established. The technical characteristics of the initial fuel components and the mixtures based on them, the ignition delay times for different mass concentrations of biomass in coal, and the composition of flue gases formed during the thermal decomposition of these mixed fuels and their base components were determined. Pellets of mixed fuels were made by a hydraulic press. The experiments were performed in an air environment at temperatures from 600 °C to 800 °C. Recording of the processes of pellet ignition and combustion was carried out using a high-speed video camera with an image format of 1024 × 1024 pixels, and a frame rate up to 500 frames per second. The analysis of the flue gas composition was performed using a Test-1 factory gas analyzer (BONER Co.). It was found that the increase in the share of biomass up to 50% in the mixed fuel led to a significant reduction in the ignition delay time to less than 1 s and the sequestration of sulfur oxide emissions by 37.6% and of nitrogen oxides by 3.8% in the studied granular mixed fuels.

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“…For instance, the study in Reference [4] investigates how Australia's energy portfolio contributes to CO 2 emissions and environmental degradation through modern econometric methods and applying empirical analysis. Reference [5] adopted a system dynamic approach to construct an integrated model for analyzing the behavior of the Australian energy sector. However, the methodology is limited in its ability to simulate the dynamics of sectoral transformation pathways over time.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Decarbonization of Australia’s Energy System: Integrated Modeling of the Transformation of Electricity, Transportation, and Industrial Sectors

et al. 2020

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To achieve the Paris Agreement’s long-term temperature goal, current energy systems must be transformed. Australia represents an interesting case for energy system transformation modeling: with a power system dominated by fossil fuels and, specifically, with a heavy coal component, there is at the same time a vast potential for expansion and use of renewables. We used the multi-sectoral Australian Energy Modeling System (AUSeMOSYS) to perform an integrated analysis of implications for the electricity, transport, and selected industry sectors to the mid-century. The state-level resolution allows representation of regional discrepancies in renewable supply and the quantification of inter-regional grid extensions necessary for the physical integration of variable renewables. We investigated the impacts of different CO2 budgets and selected key factors on energy system transformation. Results indicate that coal-fired generation has to be phased out completely by 2030 and a fully renewable electricity supply achieved in the 2030s according to the cost-optimal pathway implied by the 1.5 °C Paris Agreement-compatible carbon budget. Wind and solar PV can play a dominant role in decarbonizing Australia’s energy system with continuous growth of demand due to the strong electrification of linked energy sectors.

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Energy Sector Development: System Dynamics Analysis

Cited by 31 publications

References 22 publications

Dynamic Modeling for Resilience Measurement: NATO Resilience Decision Support Model

Dynamic Modeling for Resilience Measurement: NATO Resilience Decision Support Model

Justification of the Energy Use of Cedar Husk Waste as an Environmentally Friendly Additive for Co-Combustion with Coal

Decarbonization of Australia’s Energy System: Integrated Modeling of the Transformation of Electricity, Transportation, and Industrial Sectors

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