Energy System Structure in Russian Arctic: Coal Production Forecast

Tabachkova, Xenia; Prosekov, Sergey; Sokolinskaya, Natalia

doi:10.32479/ijeep.9000

Cited by 5 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 23 publications

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“…Диксон (Красноярский край) и в пос. Беринговский (Чукотский АО); строительство мини-ТЭЦ на углях Зырянского разреза для энергоснабжения населенных пунктов у р. Колыма в Республике Саха (Якутия) [44,45,48].…”

Section: взаимодополняющее развитие смежных отраслей как преимущество...unclassified

Advantages and Challenges of Developing Large and Local Coal Projects in the Arctic Zone of Russia

Markova

2023

jour

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Among the new projects of the Program for the Development of the Coal Industry of the Russian Federation until 2035, the possibility of developing the Arctic coal deposits is being considered. The article considers both positive (increase in NSR cargo turnover, employment in the territory, development of the Arctic infrastructure) and negative effects (environmental burden, non-transparency of tax revenues of projects not in the territory of implementation, rotational management, state subsidies, etc.), which generate new projects.Prospects for the supply of new coal projects are analyzed in the context of the decarbonization economy. Arctic projects involve the supply of coking coal and anthracites for export, which leads to increased competition in the Asian markets among Russian coal suppliers from Yakutia, Tyva, and Kuzbass. Due to the geographical remoteness of traditional coal mining centers from export ports and due to the limited capacity of the railway, in the future, competition between individual regions of the Russian Federation for access to logistics infrastructure and subsidies for transportation becomes acute. In this situation, Arctic coal projects are in a comparatively better position.An increase in the production of high-quality coking coals and anthracites is planned to be achieved in the underdeveloped northern regions, which will require the use of new innovative technological solutions not only in the production, but also in the transportation of coal, as well as the involvement of a large number of workers and specialists.

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Section: взаимодополняющее развитие смежных отраслей как преимущество...unclassified

Advantages and Challenges of Developing Large and Local Coal Projects in the Arctic Zone of Russia

Markova

2023

jour

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“…The importance of energy sector for export oriented countries was discussed a lot, different econometric methods were used to prove this point of view (Nyangarika et al, 2018). Some researchers try to analyze only some group of regions, such as Arctic ones, focusing on energy system structure's study (Tabachkova et al, 2020); some researches tried to estimate the elasticity of energy intensity on the regional scale (Burakov, 2016) that could be implemented both for different countries and regions.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Inter-sector Inter-Region Model for Russian Economy: Methodology and Application

Суслов

Buzulutskov

Isupova

2022

IJEEP

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The paper presented is intended to analyze an approach to a long-term inter-sector and inter-regional economic analysis as based on an optimization model. This approach was developed in IEIE SB RAS and resulted in several directions of application. One of them is investigation of interactions between a national economy and its energy production segment. The model being discussed includes input-output tables for six regions of Russian economy supplemented with model blocks for interregional transportations. It includes a natural block of energy production, processing and transportation. The last version of this model combines 45 products of different economic sectors including 8 ones of an energy sector (rough oil, gas and coal, two kinds of petroleum products, coal processing, electricity and heat), and 6 Russian macro-regions; it is a composition of two sub-models for 2 time periods: 2008-2020 and 2021-2030. Each of the sub-models treats time changes in simplified manner – it means that all the variables are defined for the last year of the period and the variables of the basic year are fixed as exogenous ones. The dynamics of investments into fixed capital is treated as non-linear functions being adapted with the help of linearization techniques.

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“…At the same time, the main problem in export is the long distance of delivery by rail [12]. According to some researchers and experts, Russia will follow Asian rather than European and American trends in coal mining [13,14]. The Russian coal industry will increase its exports to the huge market in the Asia-Pacific region, where population, economic activity and demand for energy resources are growing.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Forecasting the coal industry development the in Russia in the context of the transition to carbon neutrality

Prosekov

Rada

2021

SHS Web Conf.

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The purpose of the study is to develop a forecast for the development of the coal industry in Russia for 2021-2030 in the context of the transition to carbon neutrality. Irwin’s criterion was used to analyze outliers of a number of dynamics, the method of ascending and descending series to identify a trend, standard methods for assessing autocorrelation and heteroscedasticity. For forecasting, the equations of trends, the method of exponential smoothing were used. The necessity of constructing a differentiated forecast for three elements of the use of coal mined in Russia is shown: domestic consumption, export to Europe, export to the Asia-Pacific region. Domestic coal consumption is very stable and with a 95% probability it will be between 210 and 225 million tons. Coal exports to the west will decline monotonically in line with plans by European governments to stop using thermal coal. It will be about 60 million tons in 2025 and about 15-20 million tons in 2030. Exports to the countries of the Asia-Pacific region will grow until 2030. After 2030, demand for thermal coal in the Asia-Pacific region will begin to decline in line with China's plans to move towards carbon neutrality by 2050-2060. According to the forecast obtained in the study, the export of coal from Russia to the east will reach 150 million tons in 2025 and 190 million tons in 2030, after which it will begin to decline. Therefore, the coal-mining regions of Russia in the next 5-10 years must diversify the economy.

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Energy System Structure in Russian Arctic: Coal Production Forecast

Cited by 5 publications

References 23 publications

Advantages and Challenges of Developing Large and Local Coal Projects in the Arctic Zone of Russia

Advantages and Challenges of Developing Large and Local Coal Projects in the Arctic Zone of Russia

Inter-sector Inter-Region Model for Russian Economy: Methodology and Application

Forecasting the coal industry development the in Russia in the context of the transition to carbon neutrality

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