Energy Transition Metals

Abstract

The energy transition requires substantial amounts of metals, including copper, nickel, cobalt, and lithium. Are these metals a key bottleneck? We identify metalspecific demand shocks with an "anchor" variable, estimate supply elasticities, and pin down the price impact of the energy transition in a structural scenario analysis. Metal prices would reach historical peaks for an unprecedented, sustained period in a net-zero emissions scenario. The total production value of these four metals alone would rise more than four-fold to USD 13 trillion for the period 2021 to 2040, rivaling the estimated total value of crude oil production. These metals could potentially become as important to the global economy as crude oil.

Data for a Greener World

“…For example, a typical EV battery pack requires around 8 kilograms of lithium, 35 kilograms of nickel, and 14 kilograms of cobalt, while charging stations use substantial amounts of copper. As a result, an accelerated decarbonization of the economy will likely cause upward pressure on prices for these critical minerals, potentially making the decarbonization more expensive and delaying it (Boer, Pescatori, and Stuermer 2021). Many markets for critical metals are not transparent, and prices are not readily available to the public.…”

“…The estimation is based on the 2020 consumption data from IEA (2021b) and actual prices in Subindices 1 and 2. Subindex 3 focuses on the future importance of the rising metals by weighting them based on their projected demand for clean energy technologies in 2040, under the IEA (2021b) Net-Zero Emissions Scenario, multiplied by their respective prices under the same scenario derived in Boer, Pescatori, and Stuermer (2021).…”

Trajectories for Lithium‐Ion Battery Cost Production: Can Metal Prices Hamper the Deployment of Lithium‐Ion Batteries?

“…[28,58] To address this inherent uncertainty, this study adopts a proactive approach by considering three distinct price scenarios for essential metals: low, medium, and high, as shown in Figure 1. These trends have been derived from applying a generalized logistic function to projected metal prices resulting from Boer et al's study, [59] in which the possible prices for various metals were investigated with the goal of achieving net-zero emissions by 2050.…”

Solvometallurgical Process for the Recovery of Copper from Chrysocolla in Monoethanolamine

“…Copper (Cu) is an important metal for energy transition along with cobalt (Co), nickel (Ni), manganese (Mn), and lithium (Li) and accounted for 25.3 million metric tons of global consumption in 2021. , In the next two decades, the demand of copper in the clean energy sector is expected to increase by over 40% to meet the Paris Agreement goals . At present, copper is still predominantly derived from its sulfide ores, with chalcopyrite (CuFeS 2 ) being the most important copper-bearing mineral that contributes to almost half of all copper production. − The growth of the World’s copper demand over time consequently causes the higher grade and easy-to-mine resources to become exhausted, calling for utilization of lower grade and more difficult to process ores.…”