Energy Use and Related Risk Management Problems in CEE Countries

Abstract

Nowadays, the efficiency of energy use in the Central and East-European (CEE) countries is insufficient, being much lower than in the "Old Europe". The problem becomes increasingly pressing due to non-stop increasing prices of energy carriers (especially of crude oil). The authors trace the development of research activities in this sphere, classifying the revealed changes in parameters of energy consumption processes in particular time intervals into deterministic, probabilistic, and fuzzy. The paper presents a thorough analysis of decision-making in the energy management at its different levels -normative, strategic, and operative. Particular attention is given to the management under uncertainty conditions -i.e. to the risk management. The most wanted research directions in this area proposed by the energy and environment policy (EEP) Center specially created for CEE countries concern management under risk connected with innovations, international activities, loss of reputation, etc.. The authors consider in detail the risk management with insufficient knowledge (non-knowledge) and under chaos. Much consideration is given to the scenario management and the game theory principles as related to the sphere of energy use.

Innovation Risk Management in the Rational Energy Use (Part 2)

“…[5,30]), the innovation management appeared as the instrument for considering the implications stemming from parameter deviations in a concrete process and achieving its stable conditions.…”

“…client needs → development → realisation → sale A commonly accepted definition for innovation is as follows [15,30]. The innovation is a process whose basic elements are: method of idea generation →idea evaluation and acceptance →idea realisation Therefore, of great importance becomes appropriate modelling of this process, especially in identification and valuation of the uncertainty sources [15,22,[24][25][26].…”

“…As a result, the necessity exists for valuation of the relative importance of each potential local implication as well as its surroundings, with parameters and couplings needed for keeping the quality of a real process of the kind (production or service) [6,12,27,30].…”

“…impact on the product output, saving of technical or technological material, decrease in the transport congestion and in the environmental pollution, etc. ); therefore, it is necessary to estimate its economic efficiency [22,25,30].…”

“…The majority of innovations related to the rational energy consumption are dependent on the external supply and the activity of other enterprises (sometimes those from foreign countries) [3,8,15,17,21,30]. Therefore, it is necessary to take into account the most probable sources of risk for a concrete innovation (also in foreign countries).…”