Enforcement of Stay-at-home Orders Associated with Improved COVID-19 Population Outcomes

Huntley, Kyle; Mintz, Joel A.; Wahood, Waseem; Raine, Sam; Dicaro, Michael V.; Hardigan, Patrick C.; Haffizulla, Farzanna

doi:10.1016/j.annepidem.2020.08.026

“…Similar to the deterrent logic of higher stringency, another macro element such as rule enforcement has been shown to be influential in reducing the mobility rate during lockdowns. Indeed, Huntley et al (2020) and Jennings and Perez (2020) provide empirical evidence on how stronger enforcement, in this case higher fines and a higher number of police officers on the street, leads to a greater decrease in the mobility rate. Nevertheless, there is no analysis focusing on the whole European continent that differentiates between the stringency of legislation and the depth of control of enforcement modalities nor is there a comparative analysis of the enforcement rate during the COVID-19 per EU Member State.…”

Section: Mobility Rate and Compliancementioning

confidence: 99%

Lockdowns and Mobility Rate Variation in the COVID-19 Era

Vulcano

2024

International Series on Public Policy

0

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This chapter assesses the impact of lockdowns on mobility rates. It notes the variation in mobility rates during lockdowns and the importance of understanding why citizens in different countries respond differently. The results suggest that the severity of lockdowns and the capacity to enforce the rules significantly reduce mobility rates. Interestingly, however, trust in government also significantly influences the impact of restrictions on mobility rates. Finally, the influence of COVID-19 risk perception on compliance does not appear to be very relevant. The research highlights the importance of political factors in shaping compliance during crises and provides insights for policy makers.

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“…Non-compliance, on the other hand, was found among those exhibiting lower trust in government, lower empathy, science skepticism and conspiratorial beliefs [59][60][61][62]. Both the government's communication style and implementation strategy (e.g., coercion, incentivization, persuasion) have been found to impact trust and compliance [14,[63][64][65][66][67][68][69][70][71].…”

Section: Policy-induced Adaptationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Autonomous and policy-induced behavior change during the COVID-19 pandemic: Towards understanding and modeling the interplay of behavioral adaptation

Zozmann,

Schüler,

Fu

et al. 2024

PLoS ONE

1

0

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Changes in human behaviors, such as reductions of physical contacts and the adoption of preventive measures, impact the transmission of infectious diseases considerably. Behavioral adaptations may be the result of individuals aiming to protect themselves or mere responses to public containment measures, or a combination of both. What drives autonomous and policy-induced adaptation, how they are related and change over time is insufficiently understood. Here, we develop a framework for more precise analysis of behavioral adaptation, focusing on confluence, interactions and time variance of autonomous and policy-induced adaptation. We carry out an empirical analysis of Germany during the fall of 2020 and beyond. Subsequently, we discuss how behavioral adaptation processes can be better represented in behavioral-epidemiological models. We find that our framework is useful to understand the interplay of autonomous and policy-induced adaptation as a “moving target”. Our empirical analysis suggests that mobility patterns in Germany changed significantly due to both autonomous and policy-induced adaption, with potentially weaker effects over time due to decreasing risk signals, diminishing risk perceptions and an erosion of trust in the government. We find that while a number of simulation and prediction models have made great efforts to represent behavioral adaptation, the interplay of autonomous and policy-induced adaption needs to be better understood to construct convincing counterfactual scenarios for policy analysis. The insights presented here are of interest to modelers and policy makers aiming to understand and account for behaviors during a pandemic response more accurately.

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“…Compliance is furthermore dependent on the implementation strategy, which may make use of diverse instruments, ranging from coercion to persuasion to incentivization [59]. Interventions based on coercion tend to be harder to circumvent, if they are enforceable [60]. However, they are associated with significant economic and political cost due to infringements on individual liberty [61, 62].…”

Section: Background: Autonomous and Policy-induced Adaptation During ...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Autonomous and policy-induced behavior change during the COVID-19 pandemic: Towards understanding and modeling the interplay of behavioral adaptation

Zozmann,

Schüler,

Fu

et al. 2023

Preprint

0

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Changes in human behaviors, such as reductions of physical contacts and the adoption of preventive measures, impact the transmission of infectious diseases considerably. Behavioral adaptations may be the result of individuals aiming to protect themselves or mere responses to public containment measures, or a combination of both. What drives autonomous and policy-induced adaptation, how they are related and change over time is insufficiently understood. Here, we develop a framework for more precise analysis of behavioral adaptation, focusing on confluence, interactions and time variance of autonomous and policy-induced adaptation. We carry out an empirical analysis of Germany during the fall of 2020 and beyond. Subsequently, we discuss how behavioral adaptation processes can be better represented in behavioral-epidemiological models. We find that our framework is useful to understand the interplay of autonomous and policy-induced adaptation as a “moving target”. Our empirical analysis suggests that mobility patterns in Germany changed significantly due to both autonomous and policy-induced adaption, with potentially weaker effects over time due to decreasing risk signals, diminishing risk perceptions and an erosion of trust in the government. We find that while a number of simulation and prediction models have made great efforts to represent behavioral adaptation, the interplay of autonomous and policy-induced adaption needs to be better understood to construct convincing counterfactual scenarios for policy analysis. The insights presented here are of interest to modelers and policy makers aiming to understand and account for behaviors during a pandemic response more accurately.

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Enforcement of Stay-at-home Orders Associated with Improved COVID-19 Population Outcomes

Cited by 7 publications

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Lockdowns and Mobility Rate Variation in the COVID-19 Era

Lockdowns and Mobility Rate Variation in the COVID-19 Era

Autonomous and policy-induced behavior change during the COVID-19 pandemic: Towards understanding and modeling the interplay of behavioral adaptation

Autonomous and policy-induced behavior change during the COVID-19 pandemic: Towards understanding and modeling the interplay of behavioral adaptation

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