Enhanced Adaptive Management: Integrating Decision Analysis, Scenario Analysis and Environmental Modeling for the Everglades

Convertino, Matteo; Foran, Christy M.; Keisler, Jeffrey M.; Scarlett, Lynn; Loschiavo, Andy; Kiker, Gregory A.; Linkov, Igor

doi:10.1038/srep02922

Cited by 41 publications

(37 citation statements)

References 51 publications

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“…Further climate warming will be accompanied by other changes, including the amount and distribution of snow, ice, and rain and the risk of extreme weather events such as dry spells and/or droughts, heat waves, and forest fires. Climate change presents the most complex challenge (Convertino et al, 2013). The high-mountain and highlatitude regions worldwide are especially vulnerable to impacts from climate change.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

RETRACTED: Climate change perspectives in an Alpine area, Southwest China: a case analysis of local residents' views

Wang

Cao

2015

Ecological Indicators

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

RETRACTED: Climate change perspectives in an Alpine area, Southwest China: a case analysis of local residents' views

Wang

Cao

2015

Ecological Indicators

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“…• Value of Information (VoI) portfolio model (Convertino and Valverde 2013;Convertino et al 2014cConvertino et al , 2014dTrainor-Guitton et al 2012) with Pareto optimization for the design of optimal surveillance networks by selecting observers in network topologies with the highest information for detecting outbreak sources.…”

Section: Proposed Approachmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The Value of Information (VoI) is classically defined as the amount a decision maker would be willing to pay for information prior to making a decision (Convertino et al 2014c;Keisler 2004). In our case we consider the set of observersŝ(O) as the economically and epidemiologically valuable features on which stakeholders may take a decision.…”

Section: Value Of Information and Pareto Optimizationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Optimal surveillance network design: a value of information model

Convertino

Liu

Hwang

2014

Complex Adapt Syst Model

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Purpose: Infectious diseases are the second leading cause of deaths worldwide, accounting for 15 million deaths -that is more than 25% of all deaths -each year. Food plays a crucial role, contributing to 1.5 million deaths, most of which are children, through foodborne diarrheal disease alone. Thus, the ability to timely detect outbreak pathways via high-efficiency surveillance system is essential to the physical and social well being of populations. For this purpose, a traceability model inspired by wavepattern recognition models to detect "zero-patient" areas based on outbreak spread is proposed. Methods: Model effectiveness is assessed for data from the 2010 Cholera epidemic in Cameroon, the 2012 foodborne Salmonella epidemic in USA, and the 2004-2007 H5N1 avian influenza pandemic. Previous models are complemented by the introduction of an optimal selection algorithm of surveillance networks based on the Value of Information (VoI) of reporting nodes that are subnetworks of mobility networks in which people, food, and species move. The surveillance network is considered the response variable to be determined in maximizing the accuracy of outbreak source detections while minimizing detection error. Surveillance network topologies are selected by considering their integrated network resilience expressing the rewiring probability that is related to the ability to report outbreak information even in case of network destruction or missing information. Results: Independently of the outbreak epidemiology, the maximization of the VoI leads to a minimum increase in accuracy of 40% compared to the random surveillance model. Such accuracy is accompanied by an average reduction of 25% in required surveillance nodes with respect to random surveillance. Accuracy in systems diagnosis increases when system syndromic signs are the most informative in a way they reveal linkages between outbreak patterns and network transmission processes. Conclusions: The model developed is extremely useful for the optimization of surveillance networks to drastically reduce the burden of food-borne and other infectious diseases. The model can be the framework of a cyber-technology that governments and industries can utilize in a real-time manner to avoid catastrophic and costly health and economic outcomes. Further applications are envisioned for chronic diseases, socially communicable diseases, biodefense and other detection related problems at different scales.

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“…and suggestions by Convertino et al [9], three hypotheses regarding the scale of the sea dike system can be considered: a dike that can withstand a storm that occurs once every 20 years, one that can withstand a storm that occurs once every 50 years, and one that can withstand a storm that occurs once every 100 years. Three scales of sea dike system can be considered: the first is small in scale; the second is medium-scale; and the third is large-scale.…”

Section: Step 1: Specifying the Nature Of The Problemmentioning

confidence: 99%

Using a Risk Cost-Benefit Analysis for a Sea Dike to Adapt to the Sea Level in the Vietnamese Mekong River Delta

Danh

Khải

2014

Climate

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Abstract:The purpose of this study is to conduct an economic valuation of creating a concrete sea dike system as an adaptation measure to counter the impacts of a rise in sea level using a risk cost-benefit analysis framework. It uses an ex-ante approach with risk considerations for storms, floods, and salinity by specifying probability distribution functions in a simulation process, in order to incorporate these risk factors into the analysis. The results showed that the benefits of storms and floods avoided dominated the dike options. The benefit of salinity avoided was also valuable, with annual rice and aquaculture productivity losses avoided of USD 331.25 per ha and USD 915 per ha, respectively. This study evaluated a range of dike options to adapt to climate change in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta, showing high levels of benefits compared to costs. The larger in scale the dike system options were, the higher the expected net present values (ENPVs) were. Of the dike alternatives applicable to the Vietnamese Mekong Delta, considering the impacts of sea level rise of storms, floods and raised salinity in soil from flooding, small scale dikes that can subsequently be increased in height should be a priority choice. The sensitivity analyses showed that the ENPVs of dike options were very sensitive with changes in discount rate but were not sensitive with increases in salinized areas at all. The findings provide evidence to support the necessity of the construction of a concrete sea dike system in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta, given the context of global climate change.

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Enhanced Adaptive Management: Integrating Decision Analysis, Scenario Analysis and Environmental Modeling for the Everglades

Cited by 41 publications

References 51 publications

RETRACTED: Climate change perspectives in an Alpine area, Southwest China: a case analysis of local residents' views

RETRACTED: Climate change perspectives in an Alpine area, Southwest China: a case analysis of local residents' views

Optimal surveillance network design: a value of information model

Using a Risk Cost-Benefit Analysis for a Sea Dike to Adapt to the Sea Level in the Vietnamese Mekong River Delta

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