Enhanced understanding of poleward migration of tropical cyclone genesis

Shan, Kaiyue; Yu, Xing

doi:10.1088/1748-9326/abaf85

Cited by 19 publications

(15 citation statements)

References 40 publications

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“…Previous studies have a consensus that TC latitudes (including latitudes of TC's lifetime‐maximum intensity and genesis) are poleward expansion (Altman et al., 2018; Daloz & Camargo, 2018; Kossin et al., 2014; Shan & Yu, 2020; Sharmila & Walsh, 2018; Studholme et al., 2022). For example, Kossin et al.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Phase Shifts of the PDO and AMO Alter the Translation Distance of Global Tropical Cyclones

Wang

Slater

et al. 2023

Earth's Future

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Recent decadal changes in tropical cyclone (TC) frequency since the mid‐1990s have been widely reported; however, it is unclear whether there have also been any changes in TC translation distance. Here, we show that long‐term decrease in global TC translation distance during 1975–2020 is caused by an abrupt change point around the year 1997. This change point marks a switch between an increasing translation distance during 1975–1997 and decreasing translation distance during 1998–2020. The shift in TC translation distance is attributed to changes in the distance between the location of TC genesis and land, and the percentage of landfalling TCs to all TCs, which is driven by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) phase switch in the mid‐1990s. In the last 20 years, the cool, La Niña‐like sea surface temperatures (SST) during the PDO negative phase and the warm SST pattern during the AMO positive phase have enhanced the genesis potential index and the potential intensity in offshore areas, resulting in greater TC genesis landward. Phase shifts of PDO and AMO modulate environmental conditions, regulating TC genesis location and landfall frequency, and their combined effects on the translation distance of Pacific TCs. The warm SST anomalies during the AMO positive phase enhance these circulation patterns in two possible ways: via the Indian Ocean and the subtropical eastern Pacific relaying effects at a multidecadal timescale. Our findings suggest that the PDO and AMO act as key pacemakers for decadal changes in global TC translation distance.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Phase Shifts of the PDO and AMO Alter the Translation Distance of Global Tropical Cyclones

Wang

Slater

et al. 2023

Earth's Future

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“…Observations show that the LMI locations are southeast of the mean location, which may be related to the TCF locations (Studholme and Gulev 2018;Shan and Yu 2020;Lv et al 2022).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 84%

Intense Tropical Cyclones in the Western North Pacific under Global Warming: A Dynamical Downscaling Approach

Chih

Huang

et al. 2023

Preprint

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This study aims to assess the impact of global warming on intense TCs over the western North Pacific (WNP) through a dynamical downscaling approach. 379 and 179 TCs reaching Category 1 in the High-Resolution Atmospheric Model (HiRAM) are downscaled for use in the Weather Research and Forecasting model at 5-km horizontal resolution in the current climate (1979-2015) and Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 (RCP8.5) future climate (2074-2100) scenarios, respectively. Inclusion of the downscaling simulations helps better reproduce the probability distribution of the TC lifetime maximum intensity (LMI). In the warmer climate, the top 30 and top 5 % WNP TCs in LMI are projected to be stronger. Such an increase in intensity is statistically significant, and can be primarily explained by enhanced intensification rate (IR). Meanwhile, TCs among the top 5% in LMI can reach higher intensities which cannot be attained in the current climate. After downscaling, the probability of WNP TCs reaching Category 4-5 increases by 6.5 % in the late 21th century, which is 1.7 % higher as compared to the increase projected exclusively by HiRAM. Moreover, for TCs among the top 5 % in LMI, a 233-km and 300-km westward shift of LMI locations is identified in the late 21st century, for simulations with and without applying the downscaling approach, respectively. Both results suggest that very intense TCs would pose a higher threat to the WNP lands under global warming, as they become substantially stronger, and with their LMI locations migrating toward the coast.

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“…Recent studies by Shan and Yu (2020, 2021) pointed out that the La Niña‐like pattern could influence TC occurrence frequency over the low latitude through modulating the large‐scale dynamical environmental conditions like relative vorticity and vertical wind shear by changing the zonal Walker circulation, which leads to increasing landfall TCs in southeastern China in recent decades. It is also possible that the thermodynamic effect of the SST may play an equivalently important role as that of the circulation change.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…(2014), on the other hand, mentioned the influence of the interbasin TC frequency, but they found that the intrabasin rather than interbasin changes dominate the trend. Shan and Yu (2020) also quantified the effect of interbasin changes in TC frequency on the poleward migration of LMI. Although the interbasin changes in TC genesis frequency could influence the poleward migration of hemispheric mean LMI (or genesis) position, but could not be the cause of the poleward migration within one single basin.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Influence of Track Change on the Inconsistent Poleward Migration of Typhoon Activity

Guo

Tan

2022

JGR Atmospheres

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Tropical cyclone (TC) lifetime maximum intensity (LMI) positions have been reported to migrate poleward globally during the last several decades. However, during the TC peak season, the trend of TC LMI position over the western North Pacific (WNP) is not as robust as that of genesis position. In this study, we found that the TC track change plays important roles in decreasing the genesis‐to‐LMI latitude distance (G2LD), which therefore leads to the inconsistent long‐term trends of genesis and LMI positions. A statistical approach was applied to quantitatively estimate the contributions by TC track change to the G2LD trend. The results show that the increase of near‐land formed short‐track TCs and the decrease of northwestward moving and eastward posited recurving TCs combined to make the largest contribution to the decreasing trend of the G2LD and thus to the insignificant long‐term trend of LMI position during peak season. Such TC track changes are closely related to the La Niña‐like warming pattern over the Pacific. The northeastward retreatment of the western Pacific subtropical high also plays an important role in reducing the northwestward moving TCs and increasing the recurving TCs over the northwestern WNP. Applying the same statistical approach to TC genesis positions indicates that the decrease of low‐latitude formed TCs makes the largest contribution to the poleward migration of genesis position, and the increase of high‐latitude formed TCs takes the second place. These low‐latitude formed TCs are mainly featured by northwestward moving and recurving tracks.

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Enhanced understanding of poleward migration of tropical cyclone genesis

Cited by 19 publications

References 40 publications

Phase Shifts of the PDO and AMO Alter the Translation Distance of Global Tropical Cyclones

Phase Shifts of the PDO and AMO Alter the Translation Distance of Global Tropical Cyclones

Intense Tropical Cyclones in the Western North Pacific under Global Warming: A Dynamical Downscaling Approach

Influence of Track Change on the Inconsistent Poleward Migration of Typhoon Activity

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