Ensemble Learning with Statistical and Structural Models

Abstract

Statistical and structural modeling represent two distinct approaches to data analysis. In this paper, we propose a set of novel methods for combining statistical and structural models for improved prediction and causal inference. Our first proposed estimator has the doubly robustness property in that it only requires the correct specification of either the statistical or the structural model. Our second proposed estimator is a weighted ensemble that has the ability to outperform both models when they are both misspecified. Experiments demonstrate the potential of our estimators in various settings, including fist-price auctions, dynamic models of entry and exit, and demand estimation with instrumental variables. * We thank Panle Jia Barwick, Whitney Newey, and seminar audiences for many helpful discussions and suggestions. Mao acknowledges financial support by the national natural science foundation of China.