Ensembpecies distribution modeling of Salvia hydrangea under future climate change scenarios in Central Zagros Mountains, Iran

Ardestani, Elham Ghehsareh; Ghahfarrokhi, Zahra Heidari

doi:10.1016/j.gecco.2021.e01488

Cited by 16 publications

(15 citation statements)

References 56 publications

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“…Elevation had a noticeable impact on S. inflata within our research 39 , 66 . Similar results were obtained by Gahyaningsih et al 6 and Ghehsareh Ardestani and Heidari Ghahfarrokhi 25 in their studies on medicinal plant distribution found the same result 6 , 25 .…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 86%

“…Pseudo-absence or background data are only generated in locations where there are no presence data and are equivalent to the number of presence data using randomly sampling grid cells across Isfahan province. We filtered background points by randomly selecting a background point within a single grid cell (1 × 1 km) 25 .…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…To evaluate plant species' vulnerability under climate change, species distribution modeling constitutes the most widely used modeling framework in climate change impact assessments for estimating potential future range shifts of species 21 . Few studies have examined the effects of climate change on medicinal and aromatic plants 22 such as Aconitum spicatum , Allium wallichii , Bergenia ciliata , Nardostachys jatamansi , Neopicrorhiza scrophulariiflora , Paris polyphylla, Valeriana jatamansi 23 , Nepeta glomerulosa 24 , Salvia hydrangea 25 , Nepeta binaloudensis 21 , Fritillaria imperialis 26 .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Climate change impacts on optimal habitat of Stachys inflata medicinal plant in central Iran

Shaban

Ardestani

Ebrahimi‬

et al. 2023

Sci Rep

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Stachys inflata Benth. is a perennial shrub plant, with powerful natural antioxidant agents, which is recognized as a famous medicinal plant that is widely applied to treat Infection, Asthma, and Rheumatism. Iran is renowned as a center of diversity for Stachys, however, the ideal habitats of S. inflata in this nation remain unknown. The potential and future distribution of suitable habitats for S. inflata were projected using an ensembles ecological niche model in Isfahan province, Iran. We used occurrence data (using GPS), bioclimatic and topographic variables from the Chelsa and WorldClim databases to model the current and future potential distribution of this valuable species. The results showed that: (i) S. inflata is mainly distributed in the south, southwest, center, and west of the Isfahan province, and the excellent habitats of S. inflata accounted for 14.34% of the 107,000 km2 study area; (ii) mean annual temperature, mean daily temperature of wettest quarter, annual precipitation, and elevation were the four most important variables that affect the distribution of S. inflata, with a cumulative contribution of 56.55%; and (iii) about the half (− 42.36%) of the currently excellent habitats of S. inflata show a tendency to decrease from now to the 2080s, while often the area of other S. inflata habitats increases (the area of unsuitable habitat: 5.83%, the area of low habitat suitability: 24.68%, the area of moderate habitat suitability: 2.66%, and the area of high habitat suitability: 2.88%). The increase in the area of other S. inflata habitats is different and they are less favorable than the excellent habitat. The results help establishing a framework for long-term in-situ and ex-situ conservation and management practices in habitats of S. inflata in rangeland and agricultural ecosystems.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 86%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Climate change impacts on optimal habitat of Stachys inflata medicinal plant in central Iran

Shaban

Ardestani

Ebrahimi‬

et al. 2023

Sci Rep

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“…Effective management and restoration relies on a robust understanding of the relationship between species occurrence and environmental variables including topography, climate, and human use (Ahmad et al 2020; Ghehsareh Ardestani & Heidari Ghahfarrokhi 2021). Understanding and predicting the distribution of species is especially important in the context of restoring species that may be at or near the edge of their climatic tolerances and whose distributions may be decreasing with climate change.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Predicting optimal habitats of Haloxylon persicum for ecosystem restoration using ensemble ecological niche modeling under climate change in southeast Iran

Ardestani

Rigi

Honarbakhsh

2021

Restoration Ecology

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Ecological restoration plays a vital role in the management of degraded ecosystems; nevertheless, the success of restoration plans depends to a large extent on determining optimal habitats for target species' growth and survival. Ecological niche modeling can be used to predict where climate is presently suitable for a particular species used in restoration, and where suitable climates will be located in the future. Here, we used ensemble ecological modeling to identify areas suitable for restoration of the arid shrub Haloxylon persicum in southeast Iran. We generated environmental suitability predictions for H. persicum restorations from eight different niche modeling algorithms and averaged these predictions to generate an ensemble model prediction. We present projections for the climate suitability of H. persicum for the present climate and the years 2050 and 2070 under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emissions scenarios and for three different global circulation models. Our model projected the optimum mean annual temperature for this species to be between 35.5 and 37 C, the optimum temperature of the coldest quarter to be between 3.5 and 13 C and the optimum precipitation of the coldest quarter to be between 65 to 90 mm. Based on our results, H. persicum is predicted to persist north of 27 N latitude in southeast Iran under current and future conditions; however, the availability of habitat suitable for H. persicum restoration is expected to dramatically diminish under future climate change. This study will help identify and prioritize locations for ecological restoration of this species in the face of climate change.

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“…and change of species suitable areas in the context of climate change. Studying the response of plant distribution pattern to climate change and understanding the relationship between plant climate demand and geographical distribution is of great significance to reveal the history of species formation, migration and diffusion, and to put forward reasonable utilization strategies and planting zoning [45][46][47]. Global climate change is an important driving factor to change the geographical distribution pattern of species [48].…”

Section: Plos Onementioning

confidence: 99%

Suitability changes of Citrus medica L. var. sarcodactylis Swingle, a medicine-food plants affected by climate warming using the optimized MaxEnt model

Xia

Kazim²,

Nasir³

et al. 2023

PLoS ONE

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Climatic variables are important conditions for plant growth, development and reproduction. Citrus medica L. var. sarcodactylis Swingle (Rutaceae: Citrus) is one of the traditional bulk Chinese medicinal materials in China with the effects of bacteriostasis, anti-inflammatory, anti-oxidation, anti-cancer cells, regulating the immun. Analyzing the impact of climate change on geographical distribution of C. medica L. var. sarcodactylis can provide strong support for its production layout and agricultural zoning. In our paper, MaxEnt and ArcGIS were applied to simulate the suitable areas of C. medica L. var. sarcodactylis in China from the perspectives of bioclimate, soil, topographic factors and human activities, and the future climate scenarios generated by global climate models (GCMs) were selected to predict its suitable areas in 2050s and 2090s. Results showed that, 1) Under current climate condition, areas of the total, most, moderately and poorly suitable habitats of C. medica L. var. sarcodactylis in China were 177.36×104 km2, 22.27×104 km2, 51.96×104 km2 and 103.13×104 km2 respectively. The range of the most suitable habitat was the narrowest, which was located in the middle east of Sichuan, western Chongqing in the upstream of the Yangtze River Basin, southern Guizhou and western Guangxi in the upstream of the Pearl River Basin, central and southern Yunnan and Southeast Tibet in the Middle-Lower reaches of the Southwest River Basin and western Taiwan. 2) Under the future climate change scenarios, the total suitable area showed a significant increase trend in 2090s, and the change of most, moderately and poorly suitable habitats showed no obvious law. 3) Under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, the centroid of the most suitable habitat of C. medica L. var. sarcodactylis would move to the northwest, southeast and southwest respectively.

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Ensembpecies distribution modeling of Salvia hydrangea under future climate change scenarios in Central Zagros Mountains, Iran

Cited by 16 publications

References 56 publications

Climate change impacts on optimal habitat of Stachys inflata medicinal plant in central Iran

Climate change impacts on optimal habitat of Stachys inflata medicinal plant in central Iran

Predicting optimal habitats of Haloxylon persicum for ecosystem restoration using ensemble ecological niche modeling under climate change in southeast Iran

Suitability changes of Citrus medica L. var. sarcodactylis Swingle, a medicine-food plants affected by climate warming using the optimized MaxEnt model

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