ENSO impact on hydrology in Peru

Lavado‐Casimiro, Waldo; Felipe-Obando, Oscar; Silvestre, E.; Bourrel, Luc

doi:10.5194/adgeo-33-33-2013

Cited by 21 publications

(23 citation statements)

References 17 publications

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“…() and Lavado‐Casimiro et al . (), who demonstrated that at inter‐annually timescales, rainfall fluctuations over the Amazon basin are related to SST gradient variability in the tropical Atlantic during summers. In fact, rainfall is more abundant when the SST in the north tropical Atlantic is lower than the SST in the south tropical Atlantic, thus implying negative values of NAT‐SAT.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…On the other hand, several studies have documented that hydro‐climatic variability over the Andes and Amazon regions are also related to changes in Atlantic SST. Thus, warm conditions over the northern tropical Atlantic are associated with droughts in the Peruvian Amazon (Espinoza Villar et al, ; Yoon and Zeng, ; Espinoza et al, ; ; Fernandes et al, ) and over the Peruvian Andes (Lavado Casimiro et al, ; Lavado‐Casimiro et al, ). Besides, warm conditions over the tropical South Atlantic have been also associated with floods in the northern Peruvian Amazon (Marengo et al, ; Marengo and Espinoza, ).…”

Section: Atmospheric Circulation and Hydro‐climatic Variability Durinmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The single‐most important global climate feature, the ENSO, has been shown to play a key role in the triggering of rainfall‐induced HGE disasters in Peru (Waylen and Caviedes, ; Takahashi, ; Lavado‐Casimiro et al, ; Rau et al, ). ENSO results from the interaction between the tropical Pacific Ocean and atmosphere and is considered to represent the most dominant modes of inter‐annual variability resulting in considerable variability in rainfall at the global scale (Power et al, ; ; Brönnimann, ; Ropelewski and Halpert, ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Linking atmospheric circulation patterns with hydro‐geomorphic disasters in Peru

Rodríguez-Morata

Ballesteros‐Cánovas

Rohrer

et al. 2018

Intl Journal of Climatology

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The occurrence of El Niño has been generally considered the main driver of hydro‐geomorphic processes in Peru. However, the climatic characterization of hydro‐geomorphic events (HGE) occurring in the absence of El Niño remains scarce. Information contained in the DesInventar disaster database suggests a widespread occurrence of HGE associated to cold‐neutral sea surface temperature (SST) in the central Pacific and south tropical Atlantic. Here, we aim at characterizing synoptic patterns associated with HGE that have occurred over last 35 years related to the different El Niño types and focusing as well on the non‐Niño phases. We use the ERA‐Interim reanalysis climate data and implement self‐organizing maps to assess the link between HGE in Peru and specific synoptic patterns. Results suggest that synoptic patterns associated with La Niña and neutral conditions play an important role in the occurrence of hydro‐geomorphic disasters in Peru during the austral summer. A total of 21% of the events are associated only with the 1972–1973, 1982–1983 and 1997–1998 El Niño events and are mainly focused in the northern Pacific coast of the country (i.e., Tumbes, Piura and Lambayeque) while more than 36% of the recorded events in the database were associated with La Niña and neutral conditions between 1970 and 2013. La Niña‐related events were more relevant in the Andean–Amazonian regions, whereas neutral conditions were related to more frequent HGEs in the southern regions (south of the 13.25°S) along the Peruvian Pacific coast. These outcomes imply an enhanced understanding of the synoptic mechanisms leading to the occurrence of HGE and contribute to a better understanding of the triggers of HGE causing disaster no exclusively related to El Niño‐like years in Peru.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Atmospheric Circulation and Hydro‐climatic Variability Durinmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Linking atmospheric circulation patterns with hydro‐geomorphic disasters in Peru

Rodríguez-Morata

Ballesteros‐Cánovas

Rohrer

et al. 2018

Intl Journal of Climatology

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“…The generally accepted relationship is that an El Niño (a La Niña) event produces drier (wetter) than normal conditions [25][26][27][28][29]. ENSO thus serves as a potential proxy for precipitation in southern Peru, with several ENSO indices to choose from, including Niño 1+2, Niño 3, Niño 4, Niño 3.4, MEI, ONI, etc.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

ENSO Index-Based Insurance for Agricultural Protection in Southern Peru

Mortensen

Block

2018

Geosciences

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Agricultural operations in southern Peru are particularly vulnerable to climate variability due to water resource scarcity. In general, the response to drier than normal conditions in this region is reactive and fairly limited due to challenges associated with climate forecasting and administrative capacity to distribute resources. To shift this paradigm, we investigate the potential for an El Niño-Southern Oscillation index-based insurance product. The article presents a demonstration of methodology and application for one specific crop in a department of southern Peru. The purpose of this product is to streamline the ability of decision makers to provide financial relief to affected farmers during, and perhaps before, drought; extending the lead-time of the index that is used to trigger product payouts produces results of similar skill to a product trained on concurrent conditions. Issues explored in this work include basis risk, initial endowment requirements, product longevity, and the potential crossover from index-based insurance to forecast-based financing. The ability of such products to mitigate losses during and after drought may be advantageous in Peru and other regions with notable interannual climate variability.

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“…Even after Peru developed their national hazard preparedness program following this event, the region continued to be vulnerable to drought. In 1998, an estimated USD 200 million in direct losses occurred over the southern Andes of Peru due to drought (Lavado-Casimiro et al, 2013).…”

Section: E Mortensen Et Al: Regression-based Season-ahead Drought Pmentioning

confidence: 99%

Regression-based season-ahead drought prediction for southern Peru conditioned on large-scale climate variables

Mortensen

Notaro

et al. 2018

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Located at a complex topographic, climatic, and hydrologic crossroads, southern Peru is a semiarid region that exhibits high spatiotemporal variability in precipitation. The economic viability of the region hinges on this water, yet southern Peru is prone to water scarcity caused by seasonal meteorological drought. Meteorological droughts in this region are often triggered during El Niño episodes; however, other large-scale climate mechanisms also play a noteworthy role in controlling the region's hydrologic cycle. An extensive season-ahead precipitation prediction model is developed to help bolster the existing capacity of stakeholders to plan for and mitigate deleterious impacts of drought. In addition to existing climate indices, large-scale climatic variables, such as sea surface temperature, are investigated to identify potential drought predictors. A principal component regression framework is applied to 11 potential predictors to produce an ensemble forecast of regional January-March precipitation totals. Model hindcasts of 51 years, compared to climatology and another model conditioned solely on an El Niño-Southern Oscillation index, achieve notable skill and perform better for several metrics, including ranked probability skill score and a hit-miss statistic. The information provided by the developed model and ancillary modeling efforts, such as extending the lead time of and spatially disaggregating precipitation predictions to the local level as well as forecasting the number of wet-dry days per rainy season, may further assist regional stakeholders and policymakers in preparing for drought.

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ENSO impact on hydrology in Peru

Cited by 21 publications

References 17 publications

Linking atmospheric circulation patterns with hydro‐geomorphic disasters in Peru

Linking atmospheric circulation patterns with hydro‐geomorphic disasters in Peru

ENSO Index-Based Insurance for Agricultural Protection in Southern Peru

Regression-based season-ahead drought prediction for southern Peru conditioned on large-scale climate variables

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