Entwicklungen und Herausforderungen der deutschen Intelligence Community im letzten Jahrzehnt

How surprising was ISIS’ rise to power for the German intelligence community? Reconstructing estimates of likelihood prior to the fall of Mosul

“…9 The performance of the German IC in this case, as well as in other contemporary foreign crises, has received scant attention. 10 Scholars have been addressing gaps in the literature on the post-reunification evolution of the BND and the challenges it faces, 11 but the role of estimative intelligence in German foreign policymaking continues to be neglected. 12 As François Heisbourg aptly observed, 'intelligence remains an unloved stepchild in the German system'.…”