Environmental and socio-economic impacts of the changes in distribution areas of Pinus pinea L. (stone pine) due to climate change in Türkiye

Abstract

In this study, present and future distributions of stone pine due to climate changes were modeled with MaxEnt. CNRM ESM2-1 climate model and bioclimatic variables obtained from the WorldClim database were used as climate models. As climate scenarios, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5 climate change scenarios and 2041–2060 and 2081–2100 periods were used. Pearson Correlation analysis was performed to prevent high correlation in bioclimatic variables and the multicollinearity problem was eliminated by reducing 19 bioclimatic variables to 9 variables. The contribution of bioclimatic variables to the model was determined by the Jackknife test. To determine the spatial and locational differences between the present and future potential distributions estimated for the species, an analysis of change was conducted. According to the findings of the study, our model has a very high predictive power and the Jackknife test results, the bioclimatic variables BIO19, BIO6, and BIO4 contribute the most to the model. Our prediction model predicts that the distribution area of stone pine will decrease, shifting northward and towards higher altitudes. We believe that this will lead to increased risk of forest fires, loss of ecosystem services, and reduced income from stone pine. For these reasons, benefit from stone pine need to take into account the effects of climate change in their land use planning and give importance to climate change adaptation efforts. These maps, created with current and future predictions of potential habitat distribution, can be use in afforestation, ecological restoration, rural development, conservation, and all kinds of land use studies.