Environmental impacts of intensive, industrial meat and dairy production are a major concern. However, the majority of global warming emissions from animal agriculture are estimated to come from extensive, pastoral systems of production. Animal emissions are estimated using complex models, but these models can contain multiple errors that often go unreported. Modeled emissions estimates can be corroborated using measurements of greenhouse gases in the air above and downwind of areas where animals are raised, using planes, tall towers, and satellites. These atmospheric measurements suggest that total global animal emissions are accurately estimated by models. However, in the US, where production is predominantly industrialized, animal emissions are frequently underestimated by models. Intensive methods of meat and dairy production are expanding globally. This expansion is frequently justified by environmental science and economic development experts as a way to reduce the carbon footprint of meat and dairy. This guidance memo demonstrates that the emissions savings potential of intensifying production may be oversold. Reducing consumer demand for meat and dairy products, while helping producers diversify their income and shift toward food crops where possible, is recommended as a more reliable strategy for mitigating global warming. Reducing consumption and production avoids environmental tradeoffs associated with intensification, including confinement, water pollution, and antibiotic resistance. Additionally, improving the efficiency of pastoral systems can reduce environmental impacts, provided that improvements are accompanied by strict ecosystem conservation and do not lead to animal confinement.