Environmental Scarcities and Violent Conflict: Evidence from Cases

Abstract

Within the next fifty years, the planet's human population will probably pass nine billion, and global economic output may quintuple. Largely as a result, scarcities of renewable resources will increase sharply. The total area of high-quality agricultural land will drop, as will the extent of forests and the number of species they sustain. Coming generations will also see the widespread depletion and degradation of aquifers, rivers, and other water resources; the decline of many fisheries; and perhaps significant climate change.If such "environmental scarcities" become severe, could they precipitate violent civil or international conflict? I have previously surveyed the issues and evidence surrounding this question and proposed an agenda for further research.1 Here I report the results of an international research project guided by this agenda.2 Following a brief review of my original hypotheses and the project's research design, I present several general findings of this research that led me to revise the original hypotheses. The article continues with an account of empirical evidence for and against the revised hypotheses, and it concludes with an assessment of the implications of environmentally induced conflict for international security.In brief, our research showed that environmental scarcities are already contributing to violent conflicts in many parts of the developing world. These conflicts are probably the early signs of an upsurge of violence in the coming decades that will be induced or aggravated by scarcity. The violence will usually be sub-national, persistent, and diffuse. Poor societies will be particularly affected since they are less able to buffer themselves from environmental scarcities and the social

Trends and Causes of Armed Conflict

“…Research on the links between environmental degradation and conflict explores the varying (sometimes catastrophically low) capacity of states and societies to adapt to changing environmental conditions without resorting to violence (Homer-Dixon 1994). Those research approaches that have identified significant, simple and direct connections leading from environmental degradation to violent conflict, have, however, been strongly challenged (Gleditsch 1998, Lipschutz 1997.…”

Desiccation of Lake Chad as a cause of security instability in the Sahel region

“…Recently, there have been vast literature published on the causality between climate change and violent conflict (e. g., Scheffran et al 2012;Homer-Dixon 1994;Homer-Dixon & Deligiannis 2009). On one hand, some authors argue, that climate change influences resource scarcities, which leads to a violent conflict (e.g., Burke et al 2009).…”

The geography of multiple scarcities: Urban development and water problems in Lima, Peru

“…Nonetheless, a large number of official documents and technical assessments still tend to neglect the relational and politicised basis of resource scarcity and limit the analysis to the (utilitarian) balance between supply and demand (e.g. Baumgärtner et al, 2006;Homer-Dixon, 1994). According to the mainstream orthodoxy, the scarcity of water is the result of a combination of physical insufficiencies, environmental determinism and imperfect, costly market transactions.…”