Environmental shocks, civil conflict and aid effectiveness

Abstract

Do natural disasters promote conflict or peace? A series of analyses of longitudinal data between 1971 and 2011 shows the modest but significant impact of natural disasters on the likelihood of conflict, conditional on the level of foreign aid in developing countries. This paper argues that frequent natural disasters, through the legitimacy effect and monitoring effect, allow foreign aid to be channeled to marginalized groups and used for its intended development purpose, eventually lowering the likelihood of conflict. This study is the first to incorporate an examination of foreign aid into an analysis of natural disasters and civil conflicts.

Cyclones and violence against civilians: Evidence from the Cabo Delgado insurgency

“…Numerous studies find that natural shocks have a contextual impact, and that they are sometimes even associated with a positive (peaceful) outcome (e.g., Brzoska, 2018; Eastin & Zech, 2022; Ide, 2023; Kikuta, 2019; Kim, 2021; Slettebak, 2019).…”

From insight to foresight : using data to improve food and nutrition outcomes in protracted food crises in the Horn of Africa

“…Foreign aid can increase existing tensions between ethnic or political groups and thus exacerbate conflict, especially in cases where it has been distributed primarily to groups in favour of the government in charge (Baumann, et al, 2007). The risk of this is especially high in cases where the government is not concerned about their reputation or legitimacy or where there is only little monitoring of activities relating to aid distribution (Kim, 2021). There have been many examples of humanitarian assistance being stolen (Lung, 2019), being blocked from reaching beneficiaries (Faedlulloh, 2021), (Human Rights Watch, 2021); or simply 'disappearing' (Zürcher, 2017).…”

“…The attention drawn to disasters can alter the strategy of governments towards strengthening and sustaining their regimes by ensuring fair aid distribution. This can then lead to foreign aid reaching groups that are disadvantaged in 'normal' times, and funds being used for the purpose of socio-economic development, decreasing the risk of conflict in the country (Kim, 2021).…”

“…The volume of emergency assistance that any humanitarian crisis attracts depends significantly on the intensity of media coverage (Eftekhar et al, 2017;Olsen et al, 2003). Generally, rapid onset disasters such as floods and earthquakes tend to attract higher levels of international and domestic media attention as compared to slow-onset disasters such as drought (Kim, 2021).…”

“…Disasters receive significant media attention as they are considered as newsworthy due to their severity in combination with their unexpectedness (Jeong & Lee , 2019). The attention resulting from large-scale disasters can, if planned and managed well, generate 'legitimacy' and 'monitoring' effects as governments try to prove legitimization of their governance in the presence of international donors and organizations, carefully monitoring and overseeing relief activities (Kim, 2021).…”